UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.152.84safe0.72–2.650.29–2.001.01–4.66safer0.47–2.910.07–2.230.53–5.14
Shots on target
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.333.558.88safe3.47–7.201.80–5.295.27–12.48safer2.98–7.691.34–5.754.32–13.44
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0610.3724.43safe10.13–17.986.81–13.9316.94–31.92safer9.04–19.085.85–14.8914.89–33.97
Shots in box
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.826.2916.11safe6.88–12.773.61–8.9710.49–21.73safer6.05–13.592.87–9.718.92–23.30
Blocked shots
68%
13%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction3.932.246.17safe2.05–5.820.59–3.892.64–9.71safer1.51–6.360.10–4.391.60–10.75
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.823.809.62safe3.61–8.031.80–5.805.41–13.84safer3.03–8.611.27–6.344.30–14.94
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.1248.36safe44.33–57.9141.57–55.14safer42.66–59.5839.90–56.81
Passes
53%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction463452915safe396–530386–519782–1049safer378–548369–536746–1085
Pass accuracy %
27%
68%
homeawayprediction70.6074.82safe66.57–74.6370.49–79.14safer65.28–75.9269.18–80.45
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0010.0622.06safe9.17–14.847.11–13.0016.28–27.85safer8.41–15.606.37–13.7514.78–29.35
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.363.05safe0.53–2.850.26–2.450.79–5.30safer0.23–3.150.00–2.740.20–5.89
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.863.62safe0.71–2.810.73–2.991.44–5.80safer0.44–3.080.44–3.280.89–6.36
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
24%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.393.595.98safe0.96–3.832.03–5.142.99–8.97safer0.57–4.221.61–5.572.17–9.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.72–2.65 0.47–2.91 | 1.15 0.29–2.00 0.07–2.23 | 2.84 1.01–4.66 0.53–5.14 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.33 3.47–7.20 2.98–7.69 | 3.55 1.80–5.29 1.34–5.75 | 8.88 5.27–12.48 4.32–13.44 | 67% 22% |
| Total shots | 14.06 10.13–17.98 9.04–19.08 | 10.37 6.81–13.93 5.85–14.89 | 24.43 16.94–31.92 14.89–33.97 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.82 6.88–12.77 6.05–13.59 | 6.29 3.61–8.97 2.87–9.71 | 16.11 10.49–21.73 8.92–23.30 | 78% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 3.93 2.05–5.82 1.51–6.36 | 2.24 0.59–3.89 0.10–4.39 | 6.17 2.64–9.71 1.60–10.75 | 68% 13% 18% |
| Corners | 5.82 3.61–8.03 3.03–8.61 | 3.80 1.80–5.80 1.27–6.34 | 9.62 5.41–13.84 4.30–14.94 | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 51.12 44.33–57.91 42.66–59.58 | 48.36 41.57–55.14 39.90–56.81 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 463 396–530 378–548 | 452 386–519 369–536 | 915 782–1049 746–1085 | 53% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.60 66.57–74.63 65.28–75.92 | 74.82 70.49–79.14 69.18–80.45 | — | 27% 68% |
| Fouls | 12.00 9.17–14.84 8.41–15.60 | 10.06 7.11–13.00 6.37–13.75 | 22.06 16.28–27.85 14.78–29.35 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.36 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.05 0.79–5.30 0.20–5.89 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.44–3.08 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.62 1.44–5.80 0.89–6.36 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.96–3.83 0.57–4.22 | 3.59 2.03–5.14 1.61–5.57 | 5.98 2.99–8.97 2.17–9.78 | 24% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.