Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
21%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.010.972.97safe1.04–2.970.11–1.821.15–4.80safer0.79–3.230.00–2.050.67–5.28
Shots on target
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.773.269.04safe3.91–7.641.52–5.015.43–12.64safer3.42–8.131.05–5.474.48–13.60
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction15.969.6725.62safe12.03–19.886.10–13.2318.14–33.11safer10.94–20.975.14–14.1916.09–35.16
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction11.365.8817.24safe8.42–14.303.20–8.5611.61–22.86safer7.59–15.132.46–9.3010.05–24.43
Blocked shots
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.952.616.57safe2.07–5.830.96–4.273.03–10.10safer1.53–6.380.47–4.761.99–11.14
Corners
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.193.639.82safe3.97–8.401.63–5.635.60–14.03safer3.40–8.971.10–6.174.50–15.14
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction53.9148.01safe47.12–60.7041.23–54.80safer45.45–62.3739.56–56.47
Passes
67%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction505450955safe437–572384–517821–1088safer419–590366–534785–1124
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction70.6274.94safe66.59–74.6570.62–79.27safer65.29–75.9469.31–80.58
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0310.1221.16safe8.20–13.877.18–13.0715.37–26.94safer7.44–14.636.43–13.8213.87–28.44
Offsides
55%
21%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.333.44safe0.95–3.270.23–2.421.18–5.69safer0.65–3.570.00–2.710.59–6.28
Yellow cards
42%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.583.31safe0.68–2.780.45–2.711.13–5.49safer0.41–3.040.16–3.000.57–6.04
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.303.876.17safe0.87–3.742.31–5.423.18–9.16safer0.48–4.131.88–5.852.37–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.01 1.04–2.97 0.79–3.23 | 0.97 0.11–1.82 0.00–2.05 | 2.97 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 61% 21% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.77 3.91–7.64 3.42–8.13 | 3.26 1.52–5.01 1.05–5.47 | 9.04 5.43–12.64 4.48–13.60 | 75% 15% |
| Total shots | 15.96 12.03–19.88 10.94–20.97 | 9.67 6.10–13.23 5.14–14.19 | 25.62 18.14–33.11 16.09–35.16 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 11.36 8.42–14.30 7.59–15.13 | 5.88 3.20–8.56 2.46–9.30 | 17.24 11.61–22.86 10.05–24.43 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 2.07–5.83 1.53–6.38 | 2.61 0.96–4.27 0.47–4.76 | 6.57 3.03–10.10 1.99–11.14 | 63% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 6.19 3.97–8.40 3.40–8.97 | 3.63 1.63–5.63 1.10–6.17 | 9.82 5.60–14.03 4.50–15.14 | 74% 16% |
| Possession % | 53.91 47.12–60.70 45.45–62.37 | 48.01 41.23–54.80 39.56–56.47 | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 505 437–572 419–590 | 450 384–517 366–534 | 955 821–1088 785–1124 | 67% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.62 66.59–74.65 65.29–75.94 | 74.94 70.62–79.27 69.31–80.58 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 11.03 8.20–13.87 7.44–14.63 | 10.12 7.18–13.07 6.43–13.82 | 21.16 15.37–26.94 13.87–28.44 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.95–3.27 0.65–3.57 | 1.33 0.23–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 3.44 1.18–5.69 0.59–6.28 | 55% 21% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.78 0.41–3.04 | 1.58 0.45–2.71 0.16–3.00 | 3.31 1.13–5.49 0.57–6.04 | 42% 23% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.87–3.74 0.48–4.13 | 3.87 2.31–5.42 1.88–5.85 | 6.17 3.18–9.16 2.37–9.97 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+