Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
26%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.472.51safe0.07–2.010.62–2.330.69–4.33safer0.00–2.260.39–2.550.21–4.81
Shots on target
33%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.084.918.99safe2.22–5.943.17–6.655.38–12.59safer1.73–6.432.70–7.124.43–13.55
Total shots
48%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9413.7527.69safe10.02–17.8710.18–17.3120.20–35.18safer8.93–18.969.22–18.2718.15–37.23
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction7.128.5915.71safe4.18–10.065.91–11.2710.09–21.34safer3.35–10.895.17–12.018.52–22.90
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.103.726.82safe1.22–4.982.07–5.373.28–10.35safer0.67–5.521.58–5.872.25–11.39
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.655.3510.00safe2.44–6.873.35–7.355.79–14.21safer1.87–7.442.81–7.884.68–15.32
Possession %
91%
homeawayprediction38.9562.54safe32.16–45.7455.76–69.33safer30.49–47.4154.09–71.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction340539879safe272–407473–606745–1013safer254–425455–623710–1048
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction67.9181.69safe63.88–71.9477.37–86.01safer62.58–73.2376.06–87.32
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3313.6828.02safe11.50–17.1710.74–16.6322.24–33.80safer10.74–17.939.99–17.3820.73–35.30
Offsides
35%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.532.92safe0.23–2.550.44–2.620.67–5.18safer0.00–2.860.15–2.910.08–5.77
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.194.39safe1.15–3.251.06–3.322.21–6.57safer0.88–3.510.77–3.611.65–7.12
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.130.25safe0.00–0.280.00–0.310.00–0.60safer0.00–0.430.00–0.450.00–0.88
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.252.766.01safe1.82–4.691.20–4.313.02–9.00safer1.43–5.080.78–4.742.21–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 1.47 0.62–2.33 0.39–2.55 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.21–4.81 | 27% 26% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.22–5.94 1.73–6.43 | 4.91 3.17–6.65 2.70–7.12 | 8.99 5.38–12.59 4.43–13.55 | 33% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 13.94 10.02–17.87 8.93–18.96 | 13.75 10.18–17.31 9.22–18.27 | 27.69 20.20–35.18 18.15–37.23 | 48% 45% |
| Shots in box | 7.12 4.18–10.06 3.35–10.89 | 8.59 5.91–11.27 5.17–12.01 | 15.71 10.09–21.34 8.52–22.90 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.10 1.22–4.98 0.67–5.52 | 3.72 2.07–5.37 1.58–5.87 | 6.82 3.28–10.35 2.25–11.39 | 33% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 4.65 2.44–6.87 1.87–7.44 | 5.35 3.35–7.35 2.81–7.88 | 10.00 5.79–14.21 4.68–15.32 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 38.95 32.16–45.74 30.49–47.41 | 62.54 55.76–69.33 54.09–71.00 | — | 91% |
| Passes | 340 272–407 254–425 | 539 473–606 455–623 | 879 745–1013 710–1048 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.91 63.88–71.94 62.58–73.23 | 81.69 77.37–86.01 76.06–87.32 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 14.33 11.50–17.17 10.74–17.93 | 13.68 10.74–16.63 9.99–17.38 | 28.02 22.24–33.80 20.73–35.30 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.23–2.55 0.00–2.86 | 1.53 0.44–2.62 0.15–2.91 | 2.92 0.67–5.18 0.08–5.77 | 35% 25% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.25 0.88–3.51 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 4.39 2.21–6.57 1.65–7.12 | 40% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.25 1.82–4.69 1.43–5.08 | 2.76 1.20–4.31 0.78–4.74 | 6.01 3.02–9.00 2.21–9.81 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+