UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
27%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.042.43safe0.43–2.360.18–1.890.61–4.26safer0.18–2.620.00–2.120.13–4.73
Shots on target
60%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.533.347.87safe2.66–6.391.60–5.084.26–11.47safer2.18–6.881.13–5.553.31–12.43
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0010.0425.04safe11.08–18.936.47–13.6017.55–32.53safer9.99–20.025.51–14.5615.50–34.58
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction8.956.0414.99safe6.01–11.893.36–8.729.37–20.61safer5.18–12.722.62–9.467.80–22.18
Blocked shots
51%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.532.976.50safe1.65–5.411.32–4.622.97–10.04safer1.10–5.960.83–5.121.93–11.07
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.209.63safe3.22–7.642.20–6.205.42–13.84safer2.64–8.221.67–6.734.31–14.95
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.5749.63safe43.78–57.3642.85–56.42safer42.11–59.0341.18–58.09
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction410422832safe343–477355–488698–966safer325–495338–506663–1001
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction67.4972.22safe63.46–71.5267.90–76.54safer62.17–72.8166.59–77.85
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0513.4126.46safe10.21–15.8910.47–16.3620.68–32.25safer9.46–16.649.72–17.1119.18–33.75
Offsides
49%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.523.50safe0.82–3.140.43–2.611.24–5.75safer0.52–3.440.14–2.900.66–6.34
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.013.95safe0.89–2.990.88–3.141.77–6.13safer0.63–3.260.59–3.431.21–6.69
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.150.24safe0.00–0.250.00–0.330.00–0.58safer0.00–0.400.00–0.470.00–0.87
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.035.55safe1.08–3.951.47–4.592.56–8.54safer0.69–4.341.05–5.011.74–9.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.36 0.18–2.62 | 1.04 0.18–1.89 0.00–2.12 | 2.43 0.61–4.26 0.13–4.73 | 45% 27% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.53 2.66–6.39 2.18–6.88 | 3.34 1.60–5.08 1.13–5.55 | 7.87 4.26–11.47 3.31–12.43 | 60% 13% 27% |
| Total shots | 15.00 11.08–18.93 9.99–20.02 | 10.04 6.47–13.60 5.51–14.56 | 25.04 17.55–32.53 15.50–34.58 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 8.95 6.01–11.89 5.18–12.72 | 6.04 3.36–8.72 2.62–9.46 | 14.99 9.37–20.61 7.80–22.18 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.65–5.41 1.10–5.96 | 2.97 1.32–4.62 0.83–5.12 | 6.50 2.97–10.04 1.93–11.07 | 51% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.22–7.64 2.64–8.22 | 4.20 2.20–6.20 1.67–6.73 | 9.63 5.42–13.84 4.31–14.95 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 50.57 43.78–57.36 42.11–59.03 | 49.63 42.85–56.42 41.18–58.09 | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 410 343–477 325–495 | 422 355–488 338–506 | 832 698–966 663–1001 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.49 63.46–71.52 62.17–72.81 | 72.22 67.90–76.54 66.59–77.85 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 13.05 10.21–15.89 9.46–16.64 | 13.41 10.47–16.36 9.72–17.11 | 26.46 20.68–32.25 19.18–33.75 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 1.52 0.43–2.61 0.14–2.90 | 3.50 1.24–5.75 0.66–6.34 | 49% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.99 0.63–3.26 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.95 1.77–6.13 1.21–6.69 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.08–3.95 0.69–4.34 | 3.03 1.47–4.59 1.05–5.01 | 5.55 2.56–8.54 1.74–9.35 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.