UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
22%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.903.12safe0.26–2.191.04–2.751.30–4.95safer0.01–2.450.82–2.980.82–5.43
Shots on target
36%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.184.798.97safe2.32–6.053.04–6.535.36–12.57safer1.83–6.532.58–6.994.41–13.53
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3713.0425.40safe8.44–16.299.47–16.6017.91–32.89safer7.35–17.388.51–17.5615.86–34.94
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction8.478.8617.33safe5.52–11.416.18–11.5411.70–22.95safer4.70–12.245.44–12.2810.14–24.52
Blocked shots
42%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.503.507.01safe1.62–5.391.85–5.163.47–10.54safer1.08–5.931.36–5.652.44–11.58
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.739.59safe2.65–7.072.73–6.735.37–13.80safer2.07–7.652.19–7.264.27–14.91
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction42.8856.74safe36.09–49.6749.95–63.52safer34.42–51.3448.28–65.19
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction400524923safe333–467457–590790–1057safer315–485440–608754–1093
Pass accuracy %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction72.1676.79safe68.13–76.1972.47–81.11safer66.84–77.4871.16–82.42
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6611.4023.05safe8.82–14.498.45–14.3417.27–28.84safer8.06–15.257.70–15.0915.77–30.34
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.683.30safe0.46–2.780.59–2.781.05–5.56safer0.16–3.080.30–3.060.46–6.15
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.973.52safe0.49–2.590.84–3.101.34–5.69safer0.23–2.860.55–3.390.78–6.25
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.745.62safe1.44–4.311.19–4.302.63–8.61safer1.05–4.700.76–4.731.81–9.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.19 0.01–2.45 | 1.90 1.04–2.75 0.82–2.98 | 3.12 1.30–4.95 0.82–5.43 | 25% 22% 53% |
| Shots on target | 4.18 2.32–6.05 1.83–6.53 | 4.79 3.04–6.53 2.58–6.99 | 8.97 5.36–12.57 4.41–13.53 | 36% 13% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.37 8.44–16.29 7.35–17.38 | 13.04 9.47–16.60 8.51–17.56 | 25.40 17.91–32.89 15.86–34.94 | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 8.47 5.52–11.41 4.70–12.24 | 8.86 6.18–11.54 5.44–12.28 | 17.33 11.70–22.95 10.14–24.52 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.62–5.39 1.08–5.93 | 3.50 1.85–5.16 1.36–5.65 | 7.01 3.47–10.54 2.44–11.58 | 42% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.65–7.07 2.07–7.65 | 4.73 2.73–6.73 2.19–7.26 | 9.59 5.37–13.80 4.27–14.91 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 42.88 36.09–49.67 34.42–51.34 | 56.74 49.95–63.52 48.28–65.19 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 400 333–467 315–485 | 524 457–590 440–608 | 923 790–1057 754–1093 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.16 68.13–76.19 66.84–77.48 | 76.79 72.47–81.11 71.16–82.42 | — | 25% 70% |
| Fouls | 11.66 8.82–14.49 8.06–15.25 | 11.40 8.45–14.34 7.70–15.09 | 23.05 17.27–28.84 15.77–30.34 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 1.68 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.06 | 3.30 1.05–5.56 0.46–6.15 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.23–2.86 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 3.52 1.34–5.69 0.78–6.25 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 2.74 1.19–4.30 0.76–4.73 | 5.62 2.63–8.61 1.81–9.42 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.