UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
21%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.002.043.04safe0.03–1.961.19–2.901.22–4.86safer0.00–2.220.96–3.130.74–5.34
Shots on target
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.665.559.21safe1.80–5.523.81–7.295.60–12.81safer1.31–6.013.34–7.764.65–13.77
Total shots
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4614.4425.90safe7.54–15.3910.88–18.0018.42–33.39safer6.45–16.489.92–18.9616.37–35.44
Shots in box
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction7.3010.3817.68safe4.35–10.247.70–13.0612.05–23.30safer3.52–11.076.96–13.8010.49–24.87
Blocked shots
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.673.986.65safe0.79–4.552.32–5.633.11–10.19safer0.25–5.101.83–6.122.08–11.22
Corners
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction4.185.9610.14safe1.96–6.393.96–7.965.92–14.35safer1.39–6.963.43–8.494.82–15.46
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction39.0260.16safe32.23–45.8153.38–66.95safer30.56–47.4851.71–68.62
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction353561914safe285–420495–628780–1048safer267–438477–645745–1083
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction71.3680.19safe67.34–75.3975.87–84.52safer66.04–76.6974.56–85.83
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5911.1322.72safe8.75–14.438.19–14.0816.94–28.51safer8.00–15.187.44–14.8315.44–30.01
Offsides
41%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.024.11safe0.93–3.250.93–3.111.85–6.36safer0.63–3.550.64–3.401.26–6.95
Yellow cards
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.713.48safe0.72–2.820.58–2.841.30–5.66safer0.46–3.090.29–3.130.75–6.22
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.592.516.10safe2.16–5.030.95–4.073.11–9.09safer1.77–5.420.53–4.492.30–9.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.96 0.00–2.22 | 2.04 1.19–2.90 0.96–3.13 | 3.04 1.22–4.86 0.74–5.34 | 18% 21% 62% |
| Shots on target | 3.66 1.80–5.52 1.31–6.01 | 5.55 3.81–7.29 3.34–7.76 | 9.21 5.60–12.81 4.65–13.77 | 21% 68% |
| Total shots | 11.46 7.54–15.39 6.45–16.48 | 14.44 10.88–18.00 9.92–18.96 | 25.90 18.42–33.39 16.37–35.44 | 25% 69% |
| Shots in box | 7.30 4.35–10.24 3.52–11.07 | 10.38 7.70–13.06 6.96–13.80 | 17.68 12.05–23.30 10.49–24.87 | 20% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 2.67 0.79–4.55 0.25–5.10 | 3.98 2.32–5.63 1.83–6.12 | 6.65 3.11–10.19 2.08–11.22 | 24% 14% 62% |
| Corners | 4.18 1.96–6.39 1.39–6.96 | 5.96 3.96–7.96 3.43–8.49 | 10.14 5.92–14.35 4.82–15.46 | 23% 66% |
| Possession % | 39.02 32.23–45.81 30.56–47.48 | 60.16 53.38–66.95 51.71–68.62 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 353 285–420 267–438 | 561 495–628 477–645 | 914 780–1048 745–1083 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.36 67.34–75.39 66.04–76.69 | 80.19 75.87–84.52 74.56–85.83 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 11.59 8.75–14.43 8.00–15.18 | 11.13 8.19–14.08 7.44–14.83 | 22.72 16.94–28.51 15.44–30.01 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.09 0.93–3.25 0.63–3.55 | 2.02 0.93–3.11 0.64–3.40 | 4.11 1.85–6.36 1.26–6.95 | 41% 20% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 1.71 0.58–2.84 0.29–3.13 | 3.48 1.30–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.59 2.16–5.03 1.77–5.42 | 2.51 0.95–4.07 0.53–4.49 | 6.10 3.11–9.09 2.30–9.91 | 59% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+