UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
25%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.091.582.67safe0.12–2.050.73–2.440.85–4.49safer0.00–2.310.50–2.660.37–4.97
Shots on target
32%
13%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.834.688.51safe1.97–5.692.93–6.424.90–12.11safer1.48–6.182.47–6.893.94–13.07
Total shots
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4313.3224.75safe7.50–15.359.76–16.8917.26–32.24safer6.41–16.448.80–17.8515.21–34.29
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction7.429.0516.47safe4.48–10.376.36–11.7310.85–22.09safer3.65–11.205.63–12.469.28–23.66
Blocked shots
39%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.356.48safe1.24–5.011.70–5.012.94–10.02safer0.70–5.551.21–5.501.91–11.05
Corners
38%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.715.199.89safe2.49–6.923.19–7.195.68–14.10safer1.92–7.492.65–7.724.57–15.21
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction44.9154.51safe38.12–51.7047.72–61.29safer36.45–53.3746.05–62.96
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction408485893safe341–475419–552760–1027safer323–493401–569724–1063
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction72.9376.60safe68.90–76.9672.28–80.93safer67.61–78.2570.97–82.24
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1511.4023.55safe9.32–14.998.45–14.3417.77–29.33safer8.56–15.757.70–15.0916.26–30.84
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.603.52safe0.76–3.080.51–2.691.27–5.78safer0.46–3.380.22–2.980.68–6.36
Yellow cards
36%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.953.74safe0.75–2.850.82–3.081.57–5.92safer0.48–3.110.53–3.371.01–6.48
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.715.72safe1.57–4.451.15–4.262.73–8.71safer1.19–4.830.73–4.691.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 0.12–2.05 0.00–2.31 | 1.58 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.66 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.37–4.97 | 26% 25% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.83 1.97–5.69 1.48–6.18 | 4.68 2.93–6.42 2.47–6.89 | 8.51 4.90–12.11 3.94–13.07 | 32% 13% 55% |
| Total shots | 11.43 7.50–15.35 6.41–16.44 | 13.32 9.76–16.89 8.80–17.85 | 24.75 17.26–32.24 15.21–34.29 | 31% 61% |
| Shots in box | 7.42 4.48–10.37 3.65–11.20 | 9.05 6.36–11.73 5.63–12.46 | 16.47 10.85–22.09 9.28–23.66 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 1.24–5.01 0.70–5.55 | 3.35 1.70–5.01 1.21–5.50 | 6.48 2.94–10.02 1.91–11.05 | 39% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.71 2.49–6.92 1.92–7.49 | 5.19 3.19–7.19 2.65–7.72 | 9.89 5.68–14.10 4.57–15.21 | 38% 50% |
| Possession % | 44.91 38.12–51.70 36.45–53.37 | 54.51 47.72–61.29 46.05–62.96 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 408 341–475 323–493 | 485 419–552 401–569 | 893 760–1027 724–1063 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.93 68.90–76.96 67.61–78.25 | 76.60 72.28–80.93 70.97–82.24 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 12.15 9.32–14.99 8.56–15.75 | 11.40 8.45–14.34 7.70–15.09 | 23.55 17.77–29.33 16.26–30.84 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.46–3.38 | 1.60 0.51–2.69 0.22–2.98 | 3.52 1.27–5.78 0.68–6.36 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.48–3.11 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.74 1.57–5.92 1.01–6.48 | 36% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.57–4.45 1.19–4.83 | 2.71 1.15–4.26 0.73–4.69 | 5.72 2.73–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.