UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.442.97safe0.56–2.500.58–2.291.14–4.79safer0.31–2.750.36–2.520.66–5.27
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.834.048.87safe2.97–6.702.30–5.785.27–12.48safer2.48–7.191.83–6.254.31–13.43
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8910.7225.62safe10.97–18.827.16–14.2918.13–33.11safer9.88–19.916.20–15.2516.08–35.16
Shots in box
59%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction8.857.3916.24safe5.91–11.794.71–10.0710.61–21.86safer5.08–12.623.97–10.819.05–23.43
Blocked shots
56%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.077.05safe2.11–5.871.41–4.723.52–10.59safer1.56–6.410.92–5.212.48–11.63
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.684.3810.06safe3.46–7.892.38–6.385.84–14.27safer2.89–8.461.85–6.924.74–15.38
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.1053.47safe39.31–52.8946.69–60.26safer37.64–54.5645.02–61.93
Passes
36%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction468510978safe401–535443–576844–1112safer383–554426–594809–1147
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction71.1874.07safe67.15–75.2169.75–78.40safer65.86–76.5068.44–79.71
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1912.7822.97safe7.35–13.029.83–15.7217.18–28.75safer6.59–13.789.09–16.4715.68–30.25
Offsides
44%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.332.94safe0.46–2.780.24–2.420.69–5.20safer0.15–3.080.00–2.710.10–5.79
Yellow cards
25%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.362.063.42safe0.32–2.410.93–3.191.24–5.60safer0.05–2.680.64–3.480.69–6.16
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.446.18safe1.30–4.181.89–5.003.19–9.17safer0.92–4.561.46–5.422.38–9.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.50 0.31–2.75 | 1.44 0.58–2.29 0.36–2.52 | 2.97 1.14–4.79 0.66–5.27 | 40% 24% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.83 2.97–6.70 2.48–7.19 | 4.04 2.30–5.78 1.83–6.25 | 8.87 5.27–12.48 4.31–13.43 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.89 10.97–18.82 9.88–19.91 | 10.72 7.16–14.29 6.20–15.25 | 25.62 18.13–33.11 16.08–35.16 | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 8.85 5.91–11.79 5.08–12.62 | 7.39 4.71–10.07 3.97–10.81 | 16.24 10.61–21.86 9.05–23.43 | 59% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.11–5.87 1.56–6.41 | 3.07 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 7.05 3.52–10.59 2.48–11.63 | 56% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 5.68 3.46–7.89 2.89–8.46 | 4.38 2.38–6.38 1.85–6.92 | 10.06 5.84–14.27 4.74–15.38 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 46.10 39.31–52.89 37.64–54.56 | 53.47 46.69–60.26 45.02–61.93 | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 468 401–535 383–554 | 510 443–576 426–594 | 978 844–1112 809–1147 | 36% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.18 67.15–75.21 65.86–76.50 | 74.07 69.75–78.40 68.44–79.71 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 10.19 7.35–13.02 6.59–13.78 | 12.78 9.83–15.72 9.09–16.47 | 22.97 17.18–28.75 15.68–30.25 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.15–3.08 | 1.33 0.24–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 2.94 0.69–5.20 0.10–5.79 | 44% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.36 0.32–2.41 0.05–2.68 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.42 1.24–5.60 0.69–6.16 | 25% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.30–4.18 0.92–4.56 | 3.44 1.89–5.00 1.46–5.42 | 6.18 3.19–9.17 2.38–9.99 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+