UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.453.02safe0.60–2.540.59–2.301.20–4.84safer0.35–2.790.36–2.530.72–5.32
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.189.48safe3.44–7.162.44–5.935.88–13.09safer2.95–7.651.97–6.394.92–14.04
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2911.3226.61safe11.36–19.217.76–14.8919.12–34.10safer10.27–20.306.80–15.8417.07–36.15
Shots in box
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.147.8918.04safe7.20–13.095.21–10.5812.42–23.66safer6.37–13.924.48–11.3110.85–25.23
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.393.658.04safe2.51–6.271.99–5.304.50–11.57safer1.97–6.821.50–5.793.47–12.61
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.454.169.61safe3.24–7.662.16–6.165.39–13.82safer2.66–8.241.62–6.694.29–14.93
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction46.3955.21safe39.60–53.1848.42–61.99safer37.93–54.8546.75–63.67
Passes
28%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction448516964safe381–515449–582830–1097safer363–533432–600794–1133
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction69.4373.68safe65.41–73.4669.35–78.00safer64.11–74.7668.04–79.31
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0911.7321.82safe7.26–12.938.78–14.6716.04–27.60safer6.50–13.698.03–15.4214.53–29.11
Offsides
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.292.87safe0.42–2.740.19–2.380.61–5.12safer0.12–3.040.00–2.670.02–5.71
Yellow cards
26%
21%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.163.61safe0.40–2.501.03–3.291.44–5.79safer0.14–2.770.74–3.580.88–6.35
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
28%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.526.14safe1.18–4.051.97–5.083.15–9.13safer0.79–4.441.54–5.512.34–9.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.54 0.35–2.79 | 1.45 0.59–2.30 0.36–2.53 | 3.02 1.20–4.84 0.72–5.32 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.30 3.44–7.16 2.95–7.65 | 4.18 2.44–5.93 1.97–6.39 | 9.48 5.88–13.09 4.92–14.04 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.29 11.36–19.21 10.27–20.30 | 11.32 7.76–14.89 6.80–15.84 | 26.61 19.12–34.10 17.07–36.15 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 10.14 7.20–13.09 6.37–13.92 | 7.89 5.21–10.58 4.48–11.31 | 18.04 12.42–23.66 10.85–25.23 | 66% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.39 2.51–6.27 1.97–6.82 | 3.65 1.99–5.30 1.50–5.79 | 8.04 4.50–11.57 3.47–12.61 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.24–7.66 2.66–8.24 | 4.16 2.16–6.16 1.62–6.69 | 9.61 5.39–13.82 4.29–14.93 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 46.39 39.60–53.18 37.93–54.85 | 55.21 48.42–61.99 46.75–63.67 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 448 381–515 363–533 | 516 449–582 432–600 | 964 830–1097 794–1133 | 28% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.43 65.41–73.46 64.11–74.76 | 73.68 69.35–78.00 68.04–79.31 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 10.09 7.26–12.93 6.50–13.69 | 11.73 8.78–14.67 8.03–15.42 | 21.82 16.04–27.60 14.53–29.11 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.29 0.19–2.38 0.00–2.67 | 2.87 0.61–5.12 0.02–5.71 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.14–2.77 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 3.61 1.44–5.79 0.88–6.35 | 26% 21% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.52 1.97–5.08 1.54–5.51 | 6.14 3.15–9.13 2.34–9.95 | 28% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.