UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 2·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 2·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
26%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.002.55safe0.58–2.520.15–1.850.72–4.37safer0.33–2.770.00–2.080.24–4.85
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.113.198.30safe3.25–6.971.45–4.934.70–11.91safer2.76–7.460.98–5.403.74–12.86
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction13.899.9623.85safe9.97–17.826.39–13.5216.36–31.34safer8.88–18.915.44–14.4814.31–33.39
Shots in box
65%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction8.326.3014.62safe5.37–11.263.62–8.988.99–20.24safer4.54–12.092.88–9.727.43–21.81
Blocked shots
59%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.442.375.81safe1.56–5.320.72–4.022.27–9.34safer1.01–5.870.22–4.511.24–10.38
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.483.569.04safe3.27–7.701.56–5.564.83–13.26safer2.70–8.271.02–6.093.72–14.36
Possession %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction56.8943.26safe50.10–63.6836.47–50.04safer48.43–65.3534.80–51.71
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction468325793safe401–535258–391659–927safer383–554241–409624–962
Pass accuracy %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction81.0474.19safe77.01–85.0769.86–78.51safer75.72–86.3668.55–79.82
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2113.8326.04safe9.37–15.0510.88–16.7720.26–31.82safer8.61–15.8010.14–17.5218.75–33.32
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.863.65safe0.63–2.950.76–2.951.39–5.90safer0.33–3.250.48–3.240.80–6.49
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.023.68safe0.61–2.710.89–3.151.50–5.86safer0.34–2.970.60–3.440.95–6.42
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.235.65safe0.99–3.861.67–4.782.66–8.64safer0.60–4.251.25–5.211.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.58–2.52 0.33–2.77 | 1.00 0.15–1.85 0.00–2.08 | 2.55 0.72–4.37 0.24–4.85 | 50% 26% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.11 3.25–6.97 2.76–7.46 | 3.19 1.45–4.93 0.98–5.40 | 8.30 4.70–11.91 3.74–12.86 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 13.89 9.97–17.82 8.88–18.91 | 9.96 6.39–13.52 5.44–14.48 | 23.85 16.36–31.34 14.31–33.39 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 8.32 5.37–11.26 4.54–12.09 | 6.30 3.62–8.98 2.88–9.72 | 14.62 8.99–20.24 7.43–21.81 | 65% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 3.44 1.56–5.32 1.01–5.87 | 2.37 0.72–4.02 0.22–4.51 | 5.81 2.27–9.34 1.24–10.38 | 59% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 5.48 3.27–7.70 2.70–8.27 | 3.56 1.56–5.56 1.02–6.09 | 9.04 4.83–13.26 3.72–14.36 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 56.89 50.10–63.68 48.43–65.35 | 43.26 36.47–50.04 34.80–51.71 | — | 77% 19% |
| Passes | 468 401–535 383–554 | 325 258–391 241–409 | 793 659–927 624–962 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.04 77.01–85.07 75.72–86.36 | 74.19 69.86–78.51 68.55–79.82 | — | 79% 17% |
| Fouls | 12.21 9.37–15.05 8.61–15.80 | 13.83 10.88–16.77 10.14–17.52 | 26.04 20.26–31.82 18.75–33.32 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.33–3.25 | 1.86 0.76–2.95 0.48–3.24 | 3.65 1.39–5.90 0.80–6.49 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.34–2.97 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.68 1.50–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.43 0.99–3.86 0.60–4.25 | 3.23 1.67–4.78 1.25–5.21 | 5.65 2.66–8.64 1.85–9.46 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.