UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
25%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.582.65safe0.11–2.040.73–2.440.83–4.48safer0.00–2.290.50–2.660.35–4.96
Shots on target
35%
13%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.678.72safe2.19–5.912.93–6.415.12–12.33safer1.70–6.402.46–6.884.16–13.28
Total shots
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4712.8824.35safe7.54–15.399.32–16.4416.86–31.83safer6.45–16.488.36–17.4014.81–33.88
Shots in box
22%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction6.408.8715.27safe3.46–9.346.19–11.569.65–20.90safer2.63–10.175.46–12.298.08–22.46
Blocked shots
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.812.805.60safe0.92–4.691.14–4.452.07–9.14safer0.38–5.230.65–4.941.03–10.17
Corners
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.514.759.26safe2.29–6.722.75–6.755.04–13.47safer1.72–7.292.22–7.283.94–14.58
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction47.4051.30safe40.61–54.1944.51–58.08safer38.94–55.8642.84–59.75
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction389413801safe321–456346–479668–935safer303–474329–497632–971
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction79.5379.19safe75.50–83.5674.87–83.52safer74.21–84.8573.56–84.83
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5011.8124.31safe9.66–15.338.87–14.7618.53–30.09safer8.90–16.098.12–15.5017.02–31.59
Offsides
33%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.993.67safe0.52–2.840.90–3.081.42–5.93safer0.22–3.150.61–3.370.83–6.52
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.863.79safe0.87–2.970.73–2.991.61–5.96safer0.61–3.240.44–3.281.05–6.52
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.082.926.00safe1.64–4.511.36–4.483.00–8.99safer1.25–4.900.94–4.902.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.11–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 1.58 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.66 | 2.65 0.83–4.48 0.35–4.96 | 26% 25% 49% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.91 1.70–6.40 | 4.67 2.93–6.41 2.46–6.88 | 8.72 5.12–12.33 4.16–13.28 | 35% 13% 52% |
| Total shots | 11.47 7.54–15.39 6.45–16.48 | 12.88 9.32–16.44 8.36–17.40 | 24.35 16.86–31.83 14.81–33.88 | 35% 57% |
| Shots in box | 6.40 3.46–9.34 2.63–10.17 | 8.87 6.19–11.56 5.46–12.29 | 15.27 9.65–20.90 8.08–22.46 | 22% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 2.81 0.92–4.69 0.38–5.23 | 2.80 1.14–4.45 0.65–4.94 | 5.60 2.07–9.14 1.03–10.17 | 42% 17% 41% |
| Corners | 4.51 2.29–6.72 1.72–7.29 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.22–7.28 | 9.26 5.04–13.47 3.94–14.58 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 47.40 40.61–54.19 38.94–55.86 | 51.30 44.51–58.08 42.84–59.75 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 389 321–456 303–474 | 413 346–479 329–497 | 801 668–935 632–971 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.53 75.50–83.56 74.21–84.85 | 79.19 74.87–83.52 73.56–84.83 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 12.50 9.66–15.33 8.90–16.09 | 11.81 8.87–14.76 8.12–15.50 | 24.31 18.53–30.09 17.02–31.59 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.52–2.84 0.22–3.15 | 1.99 0.90–3.08 0.61–3.37 | 3.67 1.42–5.93 0.83–6.52 | 33% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.79 1.61–5.96 1.05–6.52 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 2.92 1.36–4.48 0.94–4.90 | 6.00 3.00–8.99 2.19–9.80 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+