UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
28%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.222.30safe0.11–2.050.37–2.070.48–4.12safer0.00–2.300.14–2.300.00–4.60
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.288.33safe2.19–5.912.54–6.024.73–11.94safer1.70–6.402.07–6.493.77–12.89
Total shots
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4812.9124.40safe7.56–15.419.35–16.4816.91–31.88safer6.47–16.508.39–17.4414.86–33.93
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction6.878.5815.46safe3.93–9.825.90–11.269.83–21.08safer3.10–10.655.17–12.008.27–22.65
Blocked shots
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.332.996.32safe1.45–5.211.33–4.642.78–9.85safer0.90–5.760.84–5.131.75–10.89
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.934.529.45safe2.72–7.152.52–6.525.24–13.67safer2.14–7.721.99–7.054.13–14.77
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction51.5047.52safe44.71–58.2940.74–54.31safer43.04–59.9639.07–55.98
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction414355769safe346–481289–422635–902safer328–499271–439599–938
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction75.1272.25safe71.09–79.1567.92–76.57safer69.80–80.4466.61–77.88
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0914.4427.53safe10.25–15.9311.50–17.3921.75–33.31safer9.50–16.6810.75–18.1320.25–34.82
Offsides
34%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.813.38safe0.41–2.730.71–2.901.13–5.64safer0.11–3.040.43–3.190.54–6.22
Yellow cards
34%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.374.39safe0.97–3.071.24–3.492.21–6.56safer0.71–3.340.95–3.791.65–7.12
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.062.825.88safe1.62–4.491.26–4.372.88–8.87safer1.23–4.880.84–4.802.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.11–2.05 0.00–2.30 | 1.22 0.37–2.07 0.14–2.30 | 2.30 0.48–4.12 0.00–4.60 | 32% 28% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.91 1.70–6.40 | 4.28 2.54–6.02 2.07–6.49 | 8.33 4.73–11.94 3.77–12.89 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 11.48 7.56–15.41 6.47–16.50 | 12.91 9.35–16.48 8.39–17.44 | 24.40 16.91–31.88 14.86–33.93 | 35% 57% |
| Shots in box | 6.87 3.93–9.82 3.10–10.65 | 8.58 5.90–11.26 5.17–12.00 | 15.46 9.83–21.08 8.27–22.65 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.33 1.45–5.21 0.90–5.76 | 2.99 1.33–4.64 0.84–5.13 | 6.32 2.78–9.85 1.75–10.89 | 47% 16% 37% |
| Corners | 4.93 2.72–7.15 2.14–7.72 | 4.52 2.52–6.52 1.99–7.05 | 9.45 5.24–13.67 4.13–14.77 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 51.50 44.71–58.29 43.04–59.96 | 47.52 40.74–54.31 39.07–55.98 | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 414 346–481 328–499 | 355 289–422 271–439 | 769 635–902 599–938 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.12 71.09–79.15 69.80–80.44 | 72.25 67.92–76.57 66.61–77.88 | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 13.09 10.25–15.93 9.50–16.68 | 14.44 11.50–17.39 10.75–18.13 | 27.53 21.75–33.31 20.25–34.82 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.04 | 1.81 0.71–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 3.38 1.13–5.64 0.54–6.22 | 34% 23% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.97–3.07 0.71–3.34 | 2.37 1.24–3.49 0.95–3.79 | 4.39 2.21–6.56 1.65–7.12 | 34% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.62–4.49 1.23–4.88 | 2.82 1.26–4.37 0.84–4.80 | 5.88 2.88–8.87 2.07–9.68 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.