UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
23%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.760.882.64safe0.79–2.730.03–1.730.82–4.46safer0.54–2.980.00–1.960.34–4.94
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.112.928.03safe3.25–6.971.18–4.664.42–11.63safer2.76–7.460.71–5.133.46–12.59
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6910.0724.76safe10.77–18.626.51–13.6317.27–32.25safer9.68–19.715.55–14.5915.22–34.30
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction9.075.6414.72safe6.13–12.022.96–8.329.09–20.34safer5.30–12.852.23–9.067.53–21.91
Blocked shots
68%
14%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction3.742.095.83safe1.86–5.620.44–3.742.29–9.36safer1.31–6.160.00–4.231.26–10.40
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.873.289.14safe3.65–8.081.28–5.284.93–13.36safer3.08–8.650.74–5.813.82–14.46
Possession %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction57.3242.48safe50.53–64.1135.70–49.27safer48.86–65.7834.03–50.94
Passes
84%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction478356834safe411–545290–423700–968safer393–563272–440665–1003
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction78.2872.47safe74.25–82.3168.14–76.79safer72.96–83.6066.83–78.10
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8512.9223.77safe8.02–13.699.97–15.8617.99–29.55safer7.26–14.459.22–16.6116.48–31.06
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.533.38safe0.70–3.020.43–2.621.13–5.64safer0.40–3.320.14–2.910.54–6.23
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.943.33safe0.34–2.440.81–3.061.15–5.51safer0.08–2.710.52–3.360.59–6.06
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.203.245.45safe0.77–3.641.69–4.802.45–8.44safer0.38–4.021.26–5.221.64–9.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.73 0.54–2.98 | 0.88 0.03–1.73 0.00–1.96 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 58% 23% 19% |
| Shots on target | 5.11 3.25–6.97 2.76–7.46 | 2.92 1.18–4.66 0.71–5.13 | 8.03 4.42–11.63 3.46–12.59 | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 14.69 10.77–18.62 9.68–19.71 | 10.07 6.51–13.63 5.55–14.59 | 24.76 17.27–32.25 15.22–34.30 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.07 6.13–12.02 5.30–12.85 | 5.64 2.96–8.32 2.23–9.06 | 14.72 9.09–20.34 7.53–21.91 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 1.86–5.62 1.31–6.16 | 2.09 0.44–3.74 0.00–4.23 | 5.83 2.29–9.36 1.26–10.40 | 68% 14% 18% |
| Corners | 5.87 3.65–8.08 3.08–8.65 | 3.28 1.28–5.28 0.74–5.81 | 9.14 4.93–13.36 3.82–14.46 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 57.32 50.53–64.11 48.86–65.78 | 42.48 35.70–49.27 34.03–50.94 | — | 79% 17% |
| Passes | 478 411–545 393–563 | 356 290–423 272–440 | 834 700–968 665–1003 | 84% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.28 74.25–82.31 72.96–83.60 | 72.47 68.14–76.79 66.83–78.10 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 10.85 8.02–13.69 7.26–14.45 | 12.92 9.97–15.86 9.22–16.61 | 23.77 17.99–29.55 16.48–31.06 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.32 | 1.53 0.43–2.62 0.14–2.91 | 3.38 1.13–5.64 0.54–6.23 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.39 0.34–2.44 0.08–2.71 | 1.94 0.81–3.06 0.52–3.36 | 3.33 1.15–5.51 0.59–6.06 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.20 0.77–3.64 0.38–4.02 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.22 | 5.45 2.45–8.44 1.64–9.25 | 25% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.