UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
27%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.372.47safe0.14–2.080.51–2.220.65–4.30safer0.00–2.330.28–2.450.17–4.78
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.684.297.97safe1.82–5.542.54–6.034.36–11.57safer1.33–6.032.08–6.493.41–12.53
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2412.2223.47safe7.32–15.178.66–15.7915.98–30.95safer6.23–16.267.70–16.7513.93–33.01
Shots in box
38%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction6.837.4314.27safe3.89–9.784.75–10.118.64–19.89safer3.06–10.614.02–10.857.08–21.46
Blocked shots
26%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.816.53safe0.84–4.602.16–5.463.00–10.07safer0.30–5.151.67–5.961.96–11.11
Corners
35%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.234.849.07safe2.01–6.442.84–6.844.86–13.28safer1.44–7.022.31–7.383.75–14.39
Possession %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction43.6155.44safe36.82–50.4048.66–62.23safer35.15–52.0746.99–63.90
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction355486841safe288–422420–552707–974safer269–440402–570671–1010
Pass accuracy %
16%
80%
homeawayprediction70.2377.28safe66.20–74.2672.96–81.60safer64.91–75.5571.65–82.91
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6613.1625.81safe9.82–15.4910.21–16.1020.03–31.60safer9.06–16.259.46–16.8518.53–33.10
Offsides
44%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.603.46safe0.70–3.020.50–2.691.21–5.71safer0.40–3.320.22–2.980.62–6.30
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.863.66safe0.76–2.860.73–2.981.48–5.84safer0.49–3.120.44–3.280.93–6.40
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.832.695.52safe1.40–4.271.14–4.252.53–8.52safer1.01–4.660.71–4.671.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.14–2.08 0.00–2.33 | 1.37 0.51–2.22 0.28–2.45 | 2.47 0.65–4.30 0.17–4.78 | 30% 27% 43% |
| Shots on target | 3.68 1.82–5.54 1.33–6.03 | 4.29 2.54–6.03 2.08–6.49 | 7.97 4.36–11.57 3.41–12.53 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 11.24 7.32–15.17 6.23–16.26 | 12.22 8.66–15.79 7.70–16.75 | 23.47 15.98–30.95 13.93–33.01 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 6.83 3.89–9.78 3.06–10.61 | 7.43 4.75–10.11 4.02–10.85 | 14.27 8.64–19.89 7.08–21.46 | 38% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 2.72 0.84–4.60 0.30–5.15 | 3.81 2.16–5.46 1.67–5.96 | 6.53 3.00–10.07 1.96–11.11 | 26% 15% 59% |
| Corners | 4.23 2.01–6.44 1.44–7.02 | 4.84 2.84–6.84 2.31–7.38 | 9.07 4.86–13.28 3.75–14.39 | 35% 13% 51% |
| Possession % | 43.61 36.82–50.40 35.15–52.07 | 55.44 48.66–62.23 46.99–63.90 | — | 22% 74% |
| Passes | 355 288–422 269–440 | 486 420–552 402–570 | 841 707–974 671–1010 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.23 66.20–74.26 64.91–75.55 | 77.28 72.96–81.60 71.65–82.91 | — | 16% 80% |
| Fouls | 12.66 9.82–15.49 9.06–16.25 | 13.16 10.21–16.10 9.46–16.85 | 25.81 20.03–31.60 18.53–33.10 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.32 | 1.60 0.50–2.69 0.22–2.98 | 3.46 1.21–5.71 0.62–6.30 | 44% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.49–3.12 | 1.86 0.73–2.98 0.44–3.28 | 3.66 1.48–5.84 0.93–6.40 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 2.69 1.14–4.25 0.71–4.67 | 5.52 2.53–8.52 1.72–9.33 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+