UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
22%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction0.941.892.83safe0.00–1.911.03–2.741.01–4.66safer0.00–2.160.81–2.970.53–5.14
Shots on target
15%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction3.345.939.27safe1.47–5.204.19–7.685.66–12.87safer0.98–5.693.72–8.144.71–13.83
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1615.5925.75safe6.24–14.0912.03–19.1518.27–33.24safer5.15–15.1811.07–20.1116.22–35.29
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction5.7610.2315.99safe2.82–8.707.55–12.9110.37–21.61safer1.99–9.536.81–13.658.80–23.18
Blocked shots
20%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.313.906.22safe0.43–4.192.25–5.562.68–9.75safer0.00–4.741.76–6.051.65–10.79
Corners
22%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.515.328.83safe1.30–5.723.32–7.324.62–13.05safer0.72–6.302.79–7.863.51–14.15
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction37.8962.71safe31.10–44.6855.93–69.50safer29.43–46.3554.26–71.17
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction312564876safe245–379498–631742–1010safer226–397480–648707–1045
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction71.5582.89safe67.52–75.5878.57–87.22safer66.23–76.8777.26–88.53
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0011.6625.66safe11.16–16.848.72–14.6119.88–31.44safer10.40–17.597.97–15.3618.38–32.95
Offsides
48%
19%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.462.034.49safe1.30–3.620.93–3.122.23–6.74safer1.00–3.920.65–3.411.64–7.33
Yellow cards
45%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.221.934.15safe1.17–3.270.80–3.061.98–6.33safer0.91–3.540.51–3.351.42–6.89
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.100.22safe0.00–0.280.00–0.290.00–0.57safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.85
GK saves
66%
13%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.012.456.45safe2.57–5.440.89–4.003.46–9.44safer2.18–5.830.47–4.432.65–10.26
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.94 0.00–1.91 0.00–2.16 | 1.89 1.03–2.74 0.81–2.97 | 2.83 1.01–4.66 0.53–5.14 | 18% 22% 60% |
| Shots on target | 3.34 1.47–5.20 0.98–5.69 | 5.93 4.19–7.68 3.72–8.14 | 9.27 5.66–12.87 4.71–13.83 | 15% 76% |
| Total shots | 10.16 6.24–14.09 5.15–15.18 | 15.59 12.03–19.15 11.07–20.11 | 25.75 18.27–33.24 16.22–35.29 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 5.76 2.82–8.70 1.99–9.53 | 10.23 7.55–12.91 6.81–13.65 | 15.99 10.37–21.61 8.80–23.18 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 2.31 0.43–4.19 0.00–4.74 | 3.90 2.25–5.56 1.76–6.05 | 6.22 2.68–9.75 1.65–10.79 | 20% 14% 67% |
| Corners | 3.51 1.30–5.72 0.72–6.30 | 5.32 3.32–7.32 2.79–7.86 | 8.83 4.62–13.05 3.51–14.15 | 22% 67% |
| Possession % | 37.89 31.10–44.68 29.43–46.35 | 62.71 55.93–69.50 54.26–71.17 | — | 92% |
| Passes | 312 245–379 226–397 | 564 498–631 480–648 | 876 742–1010 707–1045 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.55 67.52–75.58 66.23–76.87 | 82.89 78.57–87.22 77.26–88.53 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 14.00 11.16–16.84 10.40–17.59 | 11.66 8.72–14.61 7.97–15.36 | 25.66 19.88–31.44 18.38–32.95 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 2.46 1.30–3.62 1.00–3.92 | 2.03 0.93–3.12 0.65–3.41 | 4.49 2.23–6.74 1.64–7.33 | 48% 19% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.17–3.27 0.91–3.54 | 1.93 0.80–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 4.15 1.98–6.33 1.42–6.89 | 45% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 4.01 2.57–5.44 2.18–5.83 | 2.45 0.89–4.00 0.47–4.43 | 6.45 3.46–9.44 2.65–10.26 | 66% 13% 20% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.