UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
27%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.042.46safe0.44–2.380.19–1.900.63–4.28safer0.19–2.630.00–2.130.15–4.76
Shots on target
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.247.78safe2.68–6.401.50–4.984.17–11.39safer2.19–6.891.03–5.453.22–12.34
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6110.7023.31safe8.69–16.547.13–14.2615.82–30.80safer7.60–17.636.17–15.2213.77–32.85
Shots in box
60%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.046.5714.61safe5.09–10.983.89–9.268.99–20.23safer4.26–11.813.16–9.997.42–21.80
Blocked shots
49%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.122.655.77safe1.24–5.001.00–4.302.23–9.30safer0.69–5.540.50–4.791.20–10.34
Corners
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.083.198.28safe2.87–7.301.19–5.194.06–12.49safer2.30–7.870.66–5.732.96–13.60
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction53.5846.05safe46.79–60.3739.27–52.84safer45.12–62.0437.60–54.51
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction434423857safe367–502356–489723–991safer349–520339–507688–1026
Pass accuracy %
43%
51%
homeawayprediction76.3577.13safe72.32–80.3872.81–81.46safer71.03–81.6771.50–82.77
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4412.8625.30safe9.60–15.289.92–15.8019.52–31.08safer8.85–16.039.17–16.5518.01–32.59
Offsides
48%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.221.804.02safe1.06–3.380.71–2.891.77–6.28safer0.76–3.680.42–3.181.18–6.87
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.113.85safe0.69–2.790.98–3.241.67–6.03safer0.42–3.060.69–3.531.11–6.58
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.85
GK saves
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.543.115.65safe1.11–3.981.55–4.662.66–8.64safer0.72–4.371.13–5.091.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.04 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.46 0.63–4.28 0.15–4.76 | 45% 27% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.40 2.19–6.89 | 3.24 1.50–4.98 1.03–5.45 | 7.78 4.17–11.39 3.22–12.34 | 61% 13% 26% |
| Total shots | 12.61 8.69–16.54 7.60–17.63 | 10.70 7.13–14.26 6.17–15.22 | 23.31 15.82–30.80 13.77–32.85 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.04 5.09–10.98 4.26–11.81 | 6.57 3.89–9.26 3.16–9.99 | 14.61 8.99–20.23 7.42–21.80 | 60% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.24–5.00 0.69–5.54 | 2.65 1.00–4.30 0.50–4.79 | 5.77 2.23–9.30 1.20–10.34 | 49% 17% 34% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.87–7.30 2.30–7.87 | 3.19 1.19–5.19 0.66–5.73 | 8.28 4.06–12.49 2.96–13.60 | 68% 20% |
| Possession % | 53.58 46.79–60.37 45.12–62.04 | 46.05 39.27–52.84 37.60–54.51 | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 434 367–502 349–520 | 423 356–489 339–507 | 857 723–991 688–1026 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.35 72.32–80.38 71.03–81.67 | 77.13 72.81–81.46 71.50–82.77 | — | 43% 51% |
| Fouls | 12.44 9.60–15.28 8.85–16.03 | 12.86 9.92–15.80 9.17–16.55 | 25.30 19.52–31.08 18.01–32.59 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.22 1.06–3.38 0.76–3.68 | 1.80 0.71–2.89 0.42–3.18 | 4.02 1.77–6.28 1.18–6.87 | 48% 20% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.42–3.06 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 3.85 1.67–6.03 1.11–6.58 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.11–3.98 0.72–4.37 | 3.11 1.55–4.66 1.13–5.09 | 5.65 2.66–8.64 1.85–9.46 | 32% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+