UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
20%
23%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction0.971.792.77safe0.00–1.940.94–2.650.94–4.59safer0.00–2.190.71–2.880.46–5.07
Shots on target
21%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.405.208.61safe1.54–5.263.46–6.955.00–12.21safer1.05–5.753.00–7.414.04–13.17
Total shots
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9314.7825.71safe7.00–14.8511.22–18.3518.23–33.20safer5.91–15.9410.26–19.3116.17–35.25
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction6.639.3215.95safe3.69–9.576.64–12.0010.33–21.58safer2.86–10.405.91–12.748.76–23.14
Blocked shots
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.686.48safe0.91–4.682.03–5.332.94–10.01safer0.37–5.221.53–5.831.91–11.05
Corners
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.995.659.64safe1.78–6.213.65–7.655.43–13.86safer1.21–6.783.12–8.184.32–14.96
Possession %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction43.7655.55safe36.97–50.5548.76–62.33safer35.30–52.2247.09–64.01
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction370449819safe303–437383–516685–953safer284–455365–533650–989
Pass accuracy %
16%
80%
homeawayprediction69.0876.14safe65.05–73.1171.82–80.47safer63.76–74.4070.51–81.78
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5414.5427.08safe9.70–15.3811.60–17.4921.30–32.86safer8.95–16.1310.85–18.2419.80–34.37
Offsides
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.003.88safe0.72–3.040.91–3.091.63–6.13safer0.42–3.340.62–3.381.04–6.72
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.081.944.02safe1.03–3.130.81–3.071.84–6.19safer0.76–3.390.52–3.361.28–6.75
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.22safe0.00–0.290.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.85
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.432.495.93safe2.00–4.870.94–4.052.93–8.92safer1.61–5.260.51–4.472.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 1.79 0.94–2.65 0.71–2.88 | 2.77 0.94–4.59 0.46–5.07 | 20% 23% 57% |
| Shots on target | 3.40 1.54–5.26 1.05–5.75 | 5.20 3.46–6.95 3.00–7.41 | 8.61 5.00–12.21 4.04–13.17 | 21% 67% |
| Total shots | 10.93 7.00–14.85 5.91–15.94 | 14.78 11.22–18.35 10.26–19.31 | 25.71 18.23–33.20 16.17–35.25 | 19% 75% |
| Shots in box | 6.63 3.69–9.57 2.86–10.40 | 9.32 6.64–12.00 5.91–12.74 | 15.95 10.33–21.58 8.76–23.14 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 2.80 0.91–4.68 0.37–5.22 | 3.68 2.03–5.33 1.53–5.83 | 6.48 2.94–10.01 1.91–11.05 | 29% 15% 56% |
| Corners | 3.99 1.78–6.21 1.21–6.78 | 5.65 3.65–7.65 3.12–8.18 | 9.64 5.43–13.86 4.32–14.96 | 24% 64% |
| Possession % | 43.76 36.97–50.55 35.30–52.22 | 55.55 48.76–62.33 47.09–64.01 | — | 22% 74% |
| Passes | 370 303–437 284–455 | 449 383–516 365–533 | 819 685–953 650–989 | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.08 65.05–73.11 63.76–74.40 | 76.14 71.82–80.47 70.51–81.78 | — | 16% 80% |
| Fouls | 12.54 9.70–15.38 8.95–16.13 | 14.54 11.60–17.49 10.85–18.24 | 27.08 21.30–32.86 19.80–34.37 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 2.00 0.91–3.09 0.62–3.38 | 3.88 1.63–6.13 1.04–6.72 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.39 | 1.94 0.81–3.07 0.52–3.36 | 4.02 1.84–6.19 1.28–6.75 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.43 2.00–4.87 1.61–5.26 | 2.49 0.94–4.05 0.51–4.47 | 5.93 2.93–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 57% 16% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+