UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.192.60safe0.45–2.390.33–2.040.78–4.43safer0.20–2.640.10–2.270.30–4.91
Shots on target
42%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.294.408.68safe2.42–6.152.66–6.145.08–12.29safer1.93–6.642.19–6.614.12–13.25
Total shots
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0112.4323.45safe7.09–14.948.87–16.0015.96–30.93safer6.00–16.037.91–16.9613.91–32.99
Shots in box
48%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction7.457.1314.58safe4.51–10.394.45–9.818.96–20.21safer3.68–11.223.71–10.557.39–21.77
Blocked shots
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.955.71safe0.87–4.641.30–4.602.17–9.24safer0.33–5.180.81–5.101.13–10.28
Corners
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.694.419.10safe2.48–6.902.41–6.414.89–13.31safer1.90–7.481.88–6.943.78–14.42
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction48.4352.29safe41.64–55.2245.51–59.08safer39.97–56.8943.84–60.75
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction385456841safe318–452390–523708–975safer299–470372–540672–1011
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction72.7477.84safe68.71–76.7773.52–82.16safer67.42–78.0672.21–83.47
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3514.5726.92safe9.51–15.1911.62–17.5121.14–32.70safer8.76–15.9410.88–18.2619.63–34.21
Offsides
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.033.87safe0.68–3.000.93–3.121.62–6.12safer0.38–3.310.65–3.411.03–6.71
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.012.154.16safe0.96–3.061.03–3.281.99–6.34safer0.69–3.330.73–3.571.43–6.90
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.805.80safe1.57–4.441.24–4.362.81–8.80safer1.18–4.830.82–4.782.00–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.19 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.27 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.30–4.91 | 42% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.29 2.42–6.15 1.93–6.64 | 4.40 2.66–6.14 2.19–6.61 | 8.68 5.08–12.29 4.12–13.25 | 42% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 11.01 7.09–14.94 6.00–16.03 | 12.43 8.87–16.00 7.91–16.96 | 23.45 15.96–30.93 13.91–32.99 | 35% 58% |
| Shots in box | 7.45 4.51–10.39 3.68–11.22 | 7.13 4.45–9.81 3.71–10.55 | 14.58 8.96–20.21 7.39–21.77 | 48% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 2.75 0.87–4.64 0.33–5.18 | 2.95 1.30–4.60 0.81–5.10 | 5.71 2.17–9.24 1.13–10.28 | 38% 17% 45% |
| Corners | 4.69 2.48–6.90 1.90–7.48 | 4.41 2.41–6.41 1.88–6.94 | 9.10 4.89–13.31 3.78–14.42 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Possession % | 48.43 41.64–55.22 39.97–56.89 | 52.29 45.51–59.08 43.84–60.75 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 385 318–452 299–470 | 456 390–523 372–540 | 841 708–975 672–1011 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.74 68.71–76.77 67.42–78.06 | 77.84 73.52–82.16 72.21–83.47 | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 12.35 9.51–15.19 8.76–15.94 | 14.57 11.62–17.51 10.88–18.26 | 26.92 21.14–32.70 19.63–34.21 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.38–3.31 | 2.03 0.93–3.12 0.65–3.41 | 3.87 1.62–6.12 1.03–6.71 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 0.96–3.06 0.69–3.33 | 2.15 1.03–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 4.16 1.99–6.34 1.43–6.90 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 2.80 1.24–4.36 0.82–4.78 | 5.80 2.81–8.80 2.00–9.61 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+