UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.153.06safe0.94–2.870.30–2.011.24–4.88safer0.68–3.120.07–2.240.76–5.36
Shots on target
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.613.889.49safe3.75–7.472.13–5.625.88–13.09safer3.26–7.961.67–6.084.93–14.05
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7710.9425.71safe10.84–18.697.38–14.5018.22–33.20safer9.75–19.786.42–15.4616.17–35.25
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction9.076.3015.37safe6.13–12.013.62–8.989.74–20.99safer5.30–12.842.88–9.728.18–22.56
Blocked shots
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.952.045.99safe2.07–5.830.38–3.692.45–9.52safer1.53–6.380.00–4.181.42–10.56
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.743.599.33safe3.53–7.951.59–5.595.12–13.54safer2.95–8.531.06–6.124.01–14.65
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.9843.96safe49.19–62.7737.18–50.75safer47.52–64.4435.51–52.42
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction481393874safe414–548327–459740–1008safer396–566309–477705–1043
Pass accuracy %
71%
24%
homeawayprediction83.9479.07safe79.91–87.9774.75–83.39safer78.62–89.2673.44–84.70
Fouls
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9212.4426.35safe11.08–16.759.49–15.3820.57–32.14safer10.32–17.518.74–16.1319.07–33.64
Offsides
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.312.97safe0.50–2.820.22–2.400.72–5.22safer0.20–3.120.00–2.690.13–5.81
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.083.87safe0.75–2.840.95–3.211.70–6.05safer0.48–3.110.66–3.501.14–6.61
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
29%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.315.83safe1.09–3.961.75–4.872.84–8.82safer0.70–4.351.33–5.292.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 0.94–2.87 0.68–3.12 | 1.15 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.24 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.76–5.36 | 55% 22% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.61 3.75–7.47 3.26–7.96 | 3.88 2.13–5.62 1.67–6.08 | 9.49 5.88–13.09 4.93–14.05 | 66% 23% |
| Total shots | 14.77 10.84–18.69 9.75–19.78 | 10.94 7.38–14.50 6.42–15.46 | 25.71 18.22–33.20 16.17–35.25 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.07 6.13–12.01 5.30–12.84 | 6.30 3.62–8.98 2.88–9.72 | 15.37 9.74–20.99 8.18–22.56 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 2.07–5.83 1.53–6.38 | 2.04 0.38–3.69 0.00–4.18 | 5.99 2.45–9.52 1.42–10.56 | 72% 16% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.95 2.95–8.53 | 3.59 1.59–5.59 1.06–6.12 | 9.33 5.12–13.54 4.01–14.65 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 55.98 49.19–62.77 47.52–64.44 | 43.96 37.18–50.75 35.51–52.42 | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 481 414–548 396–566 | 393 327–459 309–477 | 874 740–1008 705–1043 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.94 79.91–87.97 78.62–89.26 | 79.07 74.75–83.39 73.44–84.70 | — | 71% 24% |
| Fouls | 13.92 11.08–16.75 10.32–17.51 | 12.44 9.49–15.38 8.74–16.13 | 26.35 20.57–32.14 19.07–33.64 | 58% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.31 0.22–2.40 0.00–2.69 | 2.97 0.72–5.22 0.13–5.81 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.84 0.48–3.11 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 3.87 1.70–6.05 1.14–6.61 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.09–3.96 0.70–4.35 | 3.31 1.75–4.87 1.33–5.29 | 5.83 2.84–8.82 2.03–9.64 | 29% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.