UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.392.93safe0.57–2.510.53–2.241.10–4.75safer0.32–2.760.30–2.470.62–5.23
Shots on target
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.8710.17safe3.44–7.173.12–6.616.57–13.78safer2.95–7.662.66–7.085.61–14.73
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0713.2028.27safe11.15–19.009.64–16.7620.79–35.76safer10.06–20.098.68–17.7218.74–37.81
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.728.1617.88safe6.78–12.665.48–10.8412.26–23.50safer5.95–13.494.74–11.5810.69–25.07
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.106.96safe1.98–5.741.44–4.753.42–10.50safer1.44–6.290.95–5.242.39–11.53
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.044.339.37safe2.83–7.262.33–6.335.16–13.59safer2.26–7.831.80–6.864.05–14.69
Possession %
51%
45%
homeawayprediction50.6149.38safe43.82–57.4142.59–56.16safer42.15–59.0740.92–57.84
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction471450921safe404–538383–516787–1054safer385–556366–534751–1090
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction80.5678.10safe76.53–84.5973.78–82.43safer75.24–85.8872.47–83.73
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8912.2524.14safe9.05–14.739.31–15.2018.36–29.92safer8.30–15.488.56–15.9416.85–31.43
Offsides
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.203.07safe0.71–3.030.11–2.300.82–5.32safer0.41–3.330.00–2.580.23–5.91
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.673.31safe0.59–2.690.54–2.801.13–5.49safer0.32–2.950.25–3.090.57–6.05
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.386.56safe1.74–4.621.82–4.933.56–9.55safer1.36–5.001.40–5.362.75–10.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.57–2.51 0.32–2.76 | 1.39 0.53–2.24 0.30–2.47 | 2.93 1.10–4.75 0.62–5.23 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.30 3.44–7.17 2.95–7.66 | 4.87 3.12–6.61 2.66–7.08 | 10.17 6.57–13.78 5.61–14.73 | 49% 38% |
| Total shots | 15.07 11.15–19.00 10.06–20.09 | 13.20 9.64–16.76 8.68–17.72 | 28.27 20.79–35.76 18.74–37.81 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.72 6.78–12.66 5.95–13.49 | 8.16 5.48–10.84 4.74–11.58 | 17.88 12.26–23.50 10.69–25.07 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 1.98–5.74 1.44–6.29 | 3.10 1.44–4.75 0.95–5.24 | 6.96 3.42–10.50 2.39–11.53 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 5.04 2.83–7.26 2.26–7.83 | 4.33 2.33–6.33 1.80–6.86 | 9.37 5.16–13.59 4.05–14.69 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 50.61 43.82–57.41 42.15–59.07 | 49.38 42.59–56.16 40.92–57.84 | — | 51% 45% |
| Passes | 471 404–538 385–556 | 450 383–516 366–534 | 921 787–1054 751–1090 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.56 76.53–84.59 75.24–85.88 | 78.10 73.78–82.43 72.47–83.73 | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 11.89 9.05–14.73 8.30–15.48 | 12.25 9.31–15.20 8.56–15.94 | 24.14 18.36–29.92 16.85–31.43 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.41–3.33 | 1.20 0.11–2.30 0.00–2.58 | 3.07 0.82–5.32 0.23–5.91 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.95 | 1.67 0.54–2.80 0.25–3.09 | 3.31 1.13–5.49 0.57–6.05 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.18 1.74–4.62 1.36–5.00 | 3.38 1.82–4.93 1.40–5.36 | 6.56 3.56–9.55 2.75–10.36 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.