UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.480.753.23safe1.51–3.450.00–1.601.40–5.05safer1.26–3.700.00–1.830.92–5.53
Shots on target
86%
homeawaytotalprediction6.492.799.28safe4.62–8.351.05–4.535.67–12.88safer4.13–8.840.58–5.004.72–13.84
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction16.908.3725.27safe12.97–20.824.80–11.9317.78–32.75safer11.88–21.923.84–12.8915.73–34.80
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction11.124.2315.34safe8.17–14.061.55–6.919.72–20.97safer7.34–14.890.81–7.658.15–22.53
Blocked shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction4.501.706.20safe2.62–6.380.05–3.362.67–9.74safer2.07–6.930.00–3.851.63–10.77
Corners
88%
homeawaytotalprediction6.882.859.73safe4.67–9.090.85–4.855.51–13.94safer4.09–9.670.31–5.384.41–15.05
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction64.3236.18safe57.53–71.1129.39–42.96safer55.86–72.7827.72–44.64
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction565317881safe497–632250–383748–1015safer479–650233–401712–1051
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction85.7974.98safe81.76–89.8270.66–79.31safer80.46–91.1169.35–80.62
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8112.8825.70safe9.98–15.659.94–15.8319.91–31.48safer9.22–16.419.19–16.5818.41–32.98
Offsides
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.243.01safe0.62–2.940.14–2.330.76–5.27safer0.31–3.240.00–2.620.17–5.86
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.903.42safe0.46–2.560.77–3.031.24–5.60safer0.20–2.830.48–3.320.68–6.15
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.243.705.94safe0.81–3.682.14–5.252.95–8.93safer0.42–4.071.72–5.682.14–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.48 1.51–3.45 1.26–3.70 | 0.75 0.00–1.60 0.00–1.83 | 3.23 1.40–5.05 0.92–5.53 | 75% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.49 4.62–8.35 4.13–8.84 | 2.79 1.05–4.53 0.58–5.00 | 9.28 5.67–12.88 4.72–13.84 | 86% |
| Total shots | 16.90 12.97–20.82 11.88–21.92 | 8.37 4.80–11.93 3.84–12.89 | 25.27 17.78–32.75 15.73–34.80 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 11.12 8.17–14.06 7.34–14.89 | 4.23 1.55–6.91 0.81–7.65 | 15.34 9.72–20.97 8.15–22.53 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 4.50 2.62–6.38 2.07–6.93 | 1.70 0.05–3.36 0.00–3.85 | 6.20 2.67–9.74 1.63–10.77 | 83% |
| Corners | 6.88 4.67–9.09 4.09–9.67 | 2.85 0.85–4.85 0.31–5.38 | 9.73 5.51–13.94 4.41–15.05 | 88% |
| Possession % | 64.32 57.53–71.11 55.86–72.78 | 36.18 29.39–42.96 27.72–44.64 | — | 95% |
| Passes | 565 497–632 479–650 | 317 250–383 233–401 | 881 748–1015 712–1051 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.79 81.76–89.82 80.46–91.11 | 74.98 70.66–79.31 69.35–80.62 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 12.81 9.98–15.65 9.22–16.41 | 12.88 9.94–15.83 9.19–16.58 | 25.70 19.91–31.48 18.41–32.98 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.31–3.24 | 1.24 0.14–2.33 0.00–2.62 | 3.01 0.76–5.27 0.17–5.86 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.56 0.20–2.83 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.42 1.24–5.60 0.68–6.15 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.24 0.81–3.68 0.42–4.07 | 3.70 2.14–5.25 1.72–5.68 | 5.94 2.95–8.93 2.14–9.75 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.