UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
23%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.793.06safe0.30–2.240.94–2.651.24–4.89safer0.05–2.490.71–2.870.76–5.37
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.005.559.56safe2.14–5.873.81–7.305.95–13.16safer1.65–6.363.34–7.765.00–14.12
Total shots
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2815.3327.62safe8.36–16.2111.77–18.9020.13–35.10safer7.27–17.3010.81–19.8618.08–37.15
Shots in box
22%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction7.6910.4618.16safe4.75–10.637.78–13.1512.53–23.78safer3.92–11.467.05–13.8810.97–25.35
Blocked shots
23%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.064.547.60safe1.18–4.942.89–6.194.07–11.14safer0.64–5.492.40–6.693.03–12.17
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.445.5710.00safe2.22–6.653.57–7.575.79–14.22safer1.65–7.233.03–8.104.68–15.32
Possession %
91%
homeawayprediction38.7362.71safe31.94–45.5255.92–69.49safer30.27–47.1954.25–71.16
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction343577920safe276–410510–643786–1054safer258–428493–661751–1089
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction62.8877.55safe58.85–66.9173.23–81.88safer57.56–68.2071.92–83.18
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3311.2922.62safe8.49–14.178.35–14.2416.84–28.40safer7.74–14.927.60–14.9815.33–29.91
Offsides
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.114.18safe0.91–3.241.01–3.201.93–6.44safer0.61–3.540.73–3.491.34–7.03
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.633.26safe0.58–2.670.50–2.761.08–5.43safer0.31–2.940.21–3.050.52–5.99
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.692.626.31safe2.25–5.121.06–4.183.32–9.30safer1.86–5.510.64–4.602.50–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.79 0.94–2.65 0.71–2.87 | 3.06 1.24–4.89 0.76–5.37 | 27% 23% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.00 2.14–5.87 1.65–6.36 | 5.55 3.81–7.30 3.34–7.76 | 9.56 5.95–13.16 5.00–14.12 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 12.28 8.36–16.21 7.27–17.30 | 15.33 11.77–18.90 10.81–19.86 | 27.62 20.13–35.10 18.08–37.15 | 25% 69% |
| Shots in box | 7.69 4.75–10.63 3.92–11.46 | 10.46 7.78–13.15 7.05–13.88 | 18.16 12.53–23.78 10.97–25.35 | 22% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.06 1.18–4.94 0.64–5.49 | 4.54 2.89–6.19 2.40–6.69 | 7.60 4.07–11.14 3.03–12.17 | 23% 64% |
| Corners | 4.44 2.22–6.65 1.65–7.23 | 5.57 3.57–7.57 3.03–8.10 | 10.00 5.79–14.22 4.68–15.32 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 38.73 31.94–45.52 30.27–47.19 | 62.71 55.92–69.49 54.25–71.16 | — | 91% |
| Passes | 343 276–410 258–428 | 577 510–643 493–661 | 920 786–1054 751–1089 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.88 58.85–66.91 57.56–68.20 | 77.55 73.23–81.88 71.92–83.18 | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 11.33 8.49–14.17 7.74–14.92 | 11.29 8.35–14.24 7.60–14.98 | 22.62 16.84–28.40 15.33–29.91 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.08 0.91–3.24 0.61–3.54 | 2.11 1.01–3.20 0.73–3.49 | 4.18 1.93–6.44 1.34–7.03 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.67 0.31–2.94 | 1.63 0.50–2.76 0.21–3.05 | 3.26 1.08–5.43 0.52–5.99 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.69 2.25–5.12 1.86–5.51 | 2.62 1.06–4.18 0.64–4.60 | 6.31 3.32–9.30 2.50–10.11 | 59% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.