UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 2·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 2·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.182.61safe0.45–2.390.33–2.040.78–4.43safer0.20–2.640.10–2.270.30–4.91
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.664.559.22safe2.80–6.532.81–6.305.61–12.82safer2.31–7.022.35–6.764.66–13.78
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0812.7826.86safe10.16–18.019.22–16.3419.38–34.35safer9.07–19.108.26–17.3017.33–36.40
Shots in box
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.158.3317.47safe6.20–12.095.65–11.0111.85–23.10safer5.37–12.924.91–11.7510.28–24.66
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.523.687.19safe1.63–5.402.02–5.333.66–10.73safer1.09–5.941.53–5.822.62–11.76
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.629.67safe2.84–7.272.62–6.625.46–13.89safer2.27–7.842.09–7.154.35–14.99
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.1854.19safe39.39–52.9747.41–60.98safer37.72–54.6445.74–62.65
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction414491904safe347–481424–557771–1038safer329–499407–575735–1074
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction67.1473.65safe63.11–71.1769.32–77.97safer61.82–72.4668.01–79.28
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3111.4722.78safe8.47–14.158.52–14.4117.00–28.56safer7.72–14.907.78–15.1615.49–30.07
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.643.56safe0.77–3.090.54–2.731.31–5.82safer0.47–3.390.25–3.020.72–6.41
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.853.45safe0.56–2.650.72–2.981.28–5.63safer0.29–2.920.43–3.270.72–6.19
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.123.176.28safe1.68–4.551.61–4.723.29–9.27safer1.29–4.941.18–5.152.48–10.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.27 | 2.61 0.78–4.43 0.30–4.91 | 42% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.66 2.80–6.53 2.31–7.02 | 4.55 2.81–6.30 2.35–6.76 | 9.22 5.61–12.82 4.66–13.78 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 14.08 10.16–18.01 9.07–19.10 | 12.78 9.22–16.34 8.26–17.30 | 26.86 19.38–34.35 17.33–36.40 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 9.15 6.20–12.09 5.37–12.92 | 8.33 5.65–11.01 4.91–11.75 | 17.47 11.85–23.10 10.28–24.66 | 53% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 1.63–5.40 1.09–5.94 | 3.68 2.02–5.33 1.53–5.82 | 7.19 3.66–10.73 2.62–11.76 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.27 2.27–7.84 | 4.62 2.62–6.62 2.09–7.15 | 9.67 5.46–13.89 4.35–14.99 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 46.18 39.39–52.97 37.72–54.64 | 54.19 47.41–60.98 45.74–62.65 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 414 347–481 329–499 | 491 424–557 407–575 | 904 771–1038 735–1074 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.14 63.11–71.17 61.82–72.46 | 73.65 69.32–77.97 68.01–79.28 | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 11.31 8.47–14.15 7.72–14.90 | 11.47 8.52–14.41 7.78–15.16 | 22.78 17.00–28.56 15.49–30.07 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 1.64 0.54–2.73 0.25–3.02 | 3.56 1.31–5.82 0.72–6.41 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.56–2.65 0.29–2.92 | 1.85 0.72–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.45 1.28–5.63 0.72–6.19 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.12 1.68–4.55 1.29–4.94 | 3.17 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.15 | 6.28 3.29–9.27 2.48–10.09 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+