UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
63%
21%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.010.902.92safe1.04–2.980.05–1.761.09–4.74safer0.79–3.230.00–1.990.61–5.22
Shots on target
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.673.339.01safe3.81–7.541.59–5.075.40–12.61safer3.32–8.031.12–5.544.45–13.57
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction16.169.7225.88safe12.23–20.086.16–13.2818.39–33.37safer11.14–21.175.20–14.2416.34–35.42
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction11.175.8617.03safe8.23–14.113.18–8.5411.40–22.65safer7.40–14.942.44–9.289.84–24.22
Blocked shots
60%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.852.716.57safe1.97–5.741.06–4.373.03–10.10safer1.43–6.280.57–4.862.00–11.14
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.853.769.61safe3.64–8.061.76–5.765.40–13.82safer3.06–8.641.23–6.294.29–14.93
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction53.7747.29safe46.98–60.5640.50–54.07safer45.31–62.2338.83–55.74
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction463432895safe396–530365–498761–1028safer378–549348–516725–1064
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction70.4173.37safe66.38–74.4469.04–77.69safer65.09–75.7367.74–79.00
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4212.9025.32safe9.58–15.259.96–15.8519.54–31.10safer8.82–16.019.21–16.6018.03–32.61
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.773.76safe0.83–3.150.68–2.871.51–6.01safer0.53–3.450.39–3.150.92–6.60
Yellow cards
31%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.843.30safe0.42–2.510.71–2.971.13–5.48safer0.15–2.780.42–3.260.57–6.04
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
25%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.555.98safe0.99–3.871.99–5.112.99–8.97safer0.61–4.251.57–5.532.18–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.01 1.04–2.98 0.79–3.23 | 0.90 0.05–1.76 0.00–1.99 | 2.92 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 63% 21% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.67 3.81–7.54 3.32–8.03 | 3.33 1.59–5.07 1.12–5.54 | 9.01 5.40–12.61 4.45–13.57 | 73% 17% |
| Total shots | 16.16 12.23–20.08 11.14–21.17 | 9.72 6.16–13.28 5.20–14.24 | 25.88 18.39–33.37 16.34–35.42 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 11.17 8.23–14.11 7.40–14.94 | 5.86 3.18–8.54 2.44–9.28 | 17.03 11.40–22.65 9.84–24.22 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 3.85 1.97–5.74 1.43–6.28 | 2.71 1.06–4.37 0.57–4.86 | 6.57 3.03–10.10 2.00–11.14 | 60% 15% 26% |
| Corners | 5.85 3.64–8.06 3.06–8.64 | 3.76 1.76–5.76 1.23–6.29 | 9.61 5.40–13.82 4.29–14.93 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 53.77 46.98–60.56 45.31–62.23 | 47.29 40.50–54.07 38.83–55.74 | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 463 396–530 378–549 | 432 365–498 348–516 | 895 761–1028 725–1064 | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.41 66.38–74.44 65.09–75.73 | 73.37 69.04–77.69 67.74–79.00 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 12.42 9.58–15.25 8.82–16.01 | 12.90 9.96–15.85 9.21–16.60 | 25.32 19.54–31.10 18.03–32.61 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.53–3.45 | 1.77 0.68–2.87 0.39–3.15 | 3.76 1.51–6.01 0.92–6.60 | 44% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.42–2.51 0.15–2.78 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.30 1.13–5.48 0.57–6.04 | 31% 23% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.43 0.99–3.87 0.61–4.25 | 3.55 1.99–5.11 1.57–5.53 | 5.98 2.99–8.97 2.18–9.79 | 25% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+