UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
23%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.011.792.80safe0.05–1.980.93–2.640.98–4.63safer0.00–2.230.71–2.870.50–5.10
Shots on target
27%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.614.838.44safe1.75–5.473.09–6.574.83–12.04safer1.26–5.962.62–7.043.88–13.00
Total shots
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4813.7225.20safe7.56–15.4110.15–17.2817.71–32.69safer6.47–16.509.19–18.2415.66–34.74
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction6.558.4414.99safe3.60–9.495.76–11.129.36–20.61safer2.77–10.325.02–11.867.80–22.18
Blocked shots
41%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.035.99safe1.08–4.841.37–4.682.45–9.52safer0.54–5.390.88–5.171.42–10.56
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.175.279.44safe1.95–6.383.27–7.275.23–13.65safer1.38–6.952.74–7.814.12–14.76
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.1255.54safe37.33–50.9148.76–62.33safer35.66–52.5847.09–64.00
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction338444782safe271–405377–510648–915safer253–423360–528612–951
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction73.7277.66safe69.69–77.7573.34–81.98safer68.40–79.0472.03–83.29
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5914.5228.11safe10.75–16.4311.57–17.4622.33–33.89safer10.00–17.1810.83–18.2120.82–35.40
Offsides
40%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.693.45safe0.61–2.930.59–2.781.20–5.71safer0.31–3.230.31–3.070.61–6.30
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.114.27safe1.11–3.210.98–3.242.09–6.45safer0.84–3.480.69–3.531.53–7.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.942.655.59safe1.50–4.371.09–4.212.59–8.58safer1.11–4.760.67–4.631.78–9.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.01 0.05–1.98 0.00–2.23 | 1.79 0.93–2.64 0.71–2.87 | 2.80 0.98–4.63 0.50–5.10 | 21% 23% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.61 1.75–5.47 1.26–5.96 | 4.83 3.09–6.57 2.62–7.04 | 8.44 4.83–12.04 3.88–13.00 | 27% 60% |
| Total shots | 11.48 7.56–15.41 6.47–16.50 | 13.72 10.15–17.28 9.19–18.24 | 25.20 17.71–32.69 15.66–34.74 | 29% 63% |
| Shots in box | 6.55 3.60–9.49 2.77–10.32 | 8.44 5.76–11.12 5.02–11.86 | 14.99 9.36–20.61 7.80–22.18 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 1.08–4.84 0.54–5.39 | 3.03 1.37–4.68 0.88–5.17 | 5.99 2.45–9.52 1.42–10.56 | 41% 17% 43% |
| Corners | 4.17 1.95–6.38 1.38–6.95 | 5.27 3.27–7.27 2.74–7.81 | 9.44 5.23–13.65 4.12–14.76 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 44.12 37.33–50.91 35.66–52.58 | 55.54 48.76–62.33 47.09–64.00 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 338 271–405 253–423 | 444 377–510 360–528 | 782 648–915 612–951 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.72 69.69–77.75 68.40–79.04 | 77.66 73.34–81.98 72.03–83.29 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 13.59 10.75–16.43 10.00–17.18 | 14.52 11.57–17.46 10.83–18.21 | 28.11 22.33–33.89 20.82–35.40 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.23 | 1.69 0.59–2.78 0.31–3.07 | 3.45 1.20–5.71 0.61–6.30 | 40% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.11–3.21 0.84–3.48 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 4.27 2.09–6.45 1.53–7.00 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.76 | 2.65 1.09–4.21 0.67–4.63 | 5.59 2.59–8.58 1.78–9.39 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.