UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
27%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.382.53safe0.19–2.120.52–2.230.71–4.35safer0.00–2.370.29–2.460.23–4.83
Shots on target
42%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.994.038.01safe2.12–5.852.29–5.774.41–11.62safer1.63–6.341.82–6.243.45–12.58
Total shots
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0712.1023.16safe7.14–14.998.54–15.6615.68–30.65safer6.05–16.087.58–16.6213.63–32.70
Shots in box
44%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction6.546.6213.16safe3.59–9.483.94–9.307.53–18.78safer2.76–10.313.20–10.045.97–20.35
Blocked shots
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.665.60safe1.06–4.831.01–4.312.07–9.14safer0.52–5.370.51–4.801.03–10.18
Corners
44%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.484.458.93safe2.26–6.692.45–6.454.72–13.14safer1.69–7.261.92–6.983.61–14.25
Possession %
42%
54%
homeawayprediction48.9051.41safe42.10–55.6944.63–58.20safer40.44–57.3642.96–59.87
Passes
34%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction363411774safe296–430344–477640–907safer278–448327–495604–943
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction73.3875.48safe69.35–77.4171.15–79.80safer68.06–78.7069.85–81.11
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2013.2727.47safe11.36–17.0410.32–16.2121.68–33.25safer10.61–17.799.57–16.9620.18–34.75
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.563.26safe0.55–2.870.46–2.651.01–5.52safer0.25–3.170.18–2.940.42–6.11
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.014.07safe1.00–3.100.89–3.141.89–6.25safer0.74–3.370.59–3.441.33–6.80
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.100.22safe0.00–0.280.00–0.290.00–0.57safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.85
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.922.675.58safe1.48–4.351.11–4.222.59–8.58safer1.09–4.740.69–4.651.78–9.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.38 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.23–4.83 | 31% 27% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.99 2.12–5.85 1.63–6.34 | 4.03 2.29–5.77 1.82–6.24 | 8.01 4.41–11.62 3.45–12.58 | 42% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 11.07 7.14–14.99 6.05–16.08 | 12.10 8.54–15.66 7.58–16.62 | 23.16 15.68–30.65 13.63–32.70 | 37% 54% |
| Shots in box | 6.54 3.59–9.48 2.76–10.31 | 6.62 3.94–9.30 3.20–10.04 | 13.16 7.53–18.78 5.97–20.35 | 44% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 2.95 1.06–4.83 0.52–5.37 | 2.66 1.01–4.31 0.51–4.80 | 5.60 2.07–9.14 1.03–10.18 | 46% 17% 37% |
| Corners | 4.48 2.26–6.69 1.69–7.26 | 4.45 2.45–6.45 1.92–6.98 | 8.93 4.72–13.14 3.61–14.25 | 44% 14% 43% |
| Possession % | 48.90 42.10–55.69 40.44–57.36 | 51.41 44.63–58.20 42.96–59.87 | — | 42% 54% |
| Passes | 363 296–430 278–448 | 411 344–477 327–495 | 774 640–907 604–943 | 34% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.38 69.35–77.41 68.06–78.70 | 75.48 71.15–79.80 69.85–81.11 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 14.20 11.36–17.04 10.61–17.79 | 13.27 10.32–16.21 9.57–16.96 | 27.47 21.68–33.25 20.18–34.75 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.56 0.46–2.65 0.18–2.94 | 3.26 1.01–5.52 0.42–6.11 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 1.00–3.10 0.74–3.37 | 2.01 0.89–3.14 0.59–3.44 | 4.07 1.89–6.25 1.33–6.80 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.48–4.35 1.09–4.74 | 2.67 1.11–4.22 0.69–4.65 | 5.58 2.59–8.58 1.78–9.39 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.