UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.432.63safe0.23–2.170.58–2.280.80–4.45safer0.00–2.420.35–2.510.33–4.93
Shots on target
43%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.018.06safe2.19–5.912.27–5.754.45–11.66safer1.70–6.401.80–6.223.50–12.62
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3811.7223.10safe7.45–15.308.16–15.2815.61–30.58safer6.36–16.397.20–16.2413.56–32.63
Shots in box
44%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction6.686.7313.41safe3.74–9.624.05–9.417.78–19.03safer2.91–10.453.31–10.156.22–20.60
Blocked shots
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.055.86safe0.93–4.701.39–4.702.32–9.40safer0.39–5.240.90–5.191.29–10.43
Corners
44%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.584.529.10safe2.37–6.792.52–6.524.88–13.31safer1.79–7.371.98–7.053.78–14.42
Possession %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction47.1852.87safe40.38–53.9746.09–59.66safer38.72–55.6444.42–61.33
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction363425789safe296–431359–492655–922safer278–449341–509619–958
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction70.7374.44safe66.70–74.7670.12–78.77safer65.41–76.0568.81–80.08
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1114.2727.38safe10.27–15.9411.33–17.2221.60–33.16safer9.51–16.7010.58–17.9720.09–34.67
Offsides
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.603.63safe0.87–3.190.50–2.691.38–5.88safer0.57–3.500.21–2.980.79–6.47
Yellow cards
36%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.114.02safe0.86–2.960.98–3.241.84–6.20safer0.59–3.220.69–3.531.28–6.75
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.715.57safe1.43–4.301.15–4.262.58–8.57safer1.04–4.690.73–4.691.77–9.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.43 0.58–2.28 0.35–2.51 | 2.63 0.80–4.45 0.33–4.93 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.91 1.70–6.40 | 4.01 2.27–5.75 1.80–6.22 | 8.06 4.45–11.66 3.50–12.62 | 43% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 11.38 7.45–15.30 6.36–16.39 | 11.72 8.16–15.28 7.20–16.24 | 23.10 15.61–30.58 13.56–32.63 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 6.68 3.74–9.62 2.91–10.45 | 6.73 4.05–9.41 3.31–10.15 | 13.41 7.78–19.03 6.22–20.60 | 44% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 2.81 0.93–4.70 0.39–5.24 | 3.05 1.39–4.70 0.90–5.19 | 5.86 2.32–9.40 1.29–10.43 | 38% 17% 45% |
| Corners | 4.58 2.37–6.79 1.79–7.37 | 4.52 2.52–6.52 1.98–7.05 | 9.10 4.88–13.31 3.78–14.42 | 44% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 47.18 40.38–53.97 38.72–55.64 | 52.87 46.09–59.66 44.42–61.33 | — | 35% 61% |
| Passes | 363 296–431 278–449 | 425 359–492 341–509 | 789 655–922 619–958 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.73 66.70–74.76 65.41–76.05 | 74.44 70.12–78.77 68.81–80.08 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 13.11 10.27–15.94 9.51–16.70 | 14.27 11.33–17.22 10.58–17.97 | 27.38 21.60–33.16 20.09–34.67 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.50 | 1.60 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.98 | 3.63 1.38–5.88 0.79–6.47 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.59–3.22 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 4.02 1.84–6.20 1.28–6.75 | 36% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 2.71 1.15–4.26 0.73–4.69 | 5.57 2.58–8.57 1.77–9.38 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.