UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.482.88safe0.43–2.370.63–2.341.06–4.71safer0.18–2.620.40–2.570.58–5.18
Shots on target
47%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.759.74safe3.13–6.853.01–6.496.13–13.34safer2.64–7.342.54–6.965.18–14.30
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0712.8826.95safe10.15–18.009.31–16.4419.46–34.44safer9.06–19.098.36–17.4017.41–36.49
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.848.4217.26safe5.90–11.785.74–11.1011.64–22.88safer5.07–12.615.00–11.8410.07–24.45
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.683.797.47safe1.80–5.562.14–5.443.94–11.01safer1.25–6.111.65–5.942.90–12.04
Corners
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.894.309.19safe2.68–7.112.30–6.304.98–13.41safer2.11–7.681.77–6.833.87–14.51
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction49.7151.90safe42.92–56.5045.12–58.69safer41.25–58.1743.45–60.36
Passes
43%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction5075281035safe440–574462–595902–1169safer422–592444–612866–1205
Pass accuracy %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction72.2275.73safe68.19–76.2571.41–80.05safer66.90–77.5470.10–81.36
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.139.9120.04safe7.29–12.966.97–12.8614.26–25.82safer6.53–13.726.22–13.6112.75–27.33
Offsides
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.553.14safe0.43–2.750.46–2.640.88–5.39safer0.13–3.050.17–2.930.29–5.98
Yellow cards
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.532.97safe0.39–2.480.40–2.660.79–5.15safer0.12–2.750.11–2.950.23–5.70
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.416.46safe1.62–4.491.85–4.963.47–9.46safer1.23–4.881.43–5.392.66–10.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.48 0.63–2.34 0.40–2.57 | 2.88 1.06–4.71 0.58–5.18 | 36% 25% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.99 3.13–6.85 2.64–7.34 | 4.75 3.01–6.49 2.54–6.96 | 9.74 6.13–13.34 5.18–14.30 | 47% 41% |
| Total shots | 14.07 10.15–18.00 9.06–19.09 | 12.88 9.31–16.44 8.36–17.40 | 26.95 19.46–34.44 17.41–36.49 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 8.84 5.90–11.78 5.07–12.61 | 8.42 5.74–11.10 5.00–11.84 | 17.26 11.64–22.88 10.07–24.45 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.68 1.80–5.56 1.25–6.11 | 3.79 2.14–5.44 1.65–5.94 | 7.47 3.94–11.01 2.90–12.04 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 4.89 2.68–7.11 2.11–7.68 | 4.30 2.30–6.30 1.77–6.83 | 9.19 4.98–13.41 3.87–14.51 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Possession % | 49.71 42.92–56.50 41.25–58.17 | 51.90 45.12–58.69 43.45–60.36 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 507 440–574 422–592 | 528 462–595 444–612 | 1035 902–1169 866–1205 | 43% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.22 68.19–76.25 66.90–77.54 | 75.73 71.41–80.05 70.10–81.36 | — | 30% 65% |
| Fouls | 10.13 7.29–12.96 6.53–13.72 | 9.91 6.97–12.86 6.22–13.61 | 20.04 14.26–25.82 12.75–27.33 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.05 | 1.55 0.46–2.64 0.17–2.93 | 3.14 0.88–5.39 0.29–5.98 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.39–2.48 0.12–2.75 | 1.53 0.40–2.66 0.11–2.95 | 2.97 0.79–5.15 0.23–5.70 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.62–4.49 1.23–4.88 | 3.41 1.85–4.96 1.43–5.39 | 6.46 3.47–9.46 2.66–10.27 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.