UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.623.06safe0.47–2.400.77–2.481.23–4.88safer0.21–2.650.54–2.700.75–5.36
Shots on target
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.525.289.80safe2.66–6.383.54–7.036.20–13.41safer2.17–6.873.08–7.495.24–14.36
Total shots
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1414.5427.69safe9.22–17.0710.98–18.1020.20–35.17safer8.13–18.1610.02–19.0618.15–37.22
Shots in box
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction8.789.6818.46safe5.84–11.727.00–12.3612.84–24.09safer5.01–12.556.26–13.1011.27–25.65
Blocked shots
36%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.824.328.14safe1.93–5.702.67–5.984.60–11.67safer1.39–6.242.18–6.473.57–12.71
Corners
42%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.604.739.33safe2.38–6.812.73–6.735.11–13.54safer1.81–7.382.19–7.264.00–14.65
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.3049.04safe44.51–58.0942.25–55.82safer42.84–59.7640.58–57.49
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction507474980safe439–574407–540847–1114safer421–592390–558811–1150
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction70.2875.52safe66.25–74.3171.20–79.85safer64.96–75.6069.89–81.16
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1412.4724.61safe9.30–14.989.53–15.4218.83–30.39safer8.55–15.748.78–16.1617.33–31.90
Offsides
40%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.483.05safe0.41–2.730.39–2.570.79–5.30safer0.11–3.030.10–2.860.20–5.89
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.083.98safe0.85–2.950.95–3.211.80–6.16safer0.58–3.210.66–3.501.25–6.72
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.582.836.40safe2.14–5.021.27–4.383.41–9.40safer1.76–5.400.85–4.812.60–10.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.62 0.77–2.48 0.54–2.70 | 3.06 1.23–4.88 0.75–5.36 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.52 2.66–6.38 2.17–6.87 | 5.28 3.54–7.03 3.08–7.49 | 9.80 6.20–13.41 5.24–14.36 | 34% 53% |
| Total shots | 13.14 9.22–17.07 8.13–18.16 | 14.54 10.98–18.10 10.02–19.06 | 27.69 20.20–35.17 18.15–37.22 | 36% 57% |
| Shots in box | 8.78 5.84–11.72 5.01–12.55 | 9.68 7.00–12.36 6.26–13.10 | 18.46 12.84–24.09 11.27–25.65 | 37% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 1.93–5.70 1.39–6.24 | 4.32 2.67–5.98 2.18–6.47 | 8.14 4.60–11.67 3.57–12.71 | 36% 14% 50% |
| Corners | 4.60 2.38–6.81 1.81–7.38 | 4.73 2.73–6.73 2.19–7.26 | 9.33 5.11–13.54 4.00–14.65 | 42% 13% 45% |
| Possession % | 51.30 44.51–58.09 42.84–59.76 | 49.04 42.25–55.82 40.58–57.49 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 507 439–574 421–592 | 474 407–540 390–558 | 980 847–1114 811–1150 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.28 66.25–74.31 64.96–75.60 | 75.52 71.20–79.85 69.89–81.16 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 12.14 9.30–14.98 8.55–15.74 | 12.47 9.53–15.42 8.78–16.16 | 24.61 18.83–30.39 17.33–31.90 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 1.48 0.39–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 3.05 0.79–5.30 0.20–5.89 | 40% 24% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.58–3.21 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 3.98 1.80–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.58 2.14–5.02 1.76–5.40 | 2.83 1.27–4.38 0.85–4.81 | 6.40 3.41–9.40 2.60–10.21 | 54% 15% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+