UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.652.77safe0.15–2.090.79–2.500.95–4.59safer0.00–2.340.57–2.730.47–5.07
Shots on target
29%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.744.838.56safe1.87–5.603.08–6.574.96–12.17safer1.39–6.092.62–7.044.00–13.13
Total shots
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4013.0024.40safe7.48–15.339.44–16.5616.92–31.89safer6.39–16.428.48–17.5214.87–33.94
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction6.838.5915.42safe3.89–9.775.91–11.279.80–21.05safer3.06–10.605.18–12.018.23–22.61
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.076.15safe1.20–4.961.42–4.722.61–9.68safer0.65–5.500.92–5.221.58–10.72
Corners
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.929.56safe2.42–6.852.92–6.925.34–13.77safer1.84–7.422.39–7.464.24–14.88
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.2650.32safe42.47–56.0543.53–57.10safer40.80–57.7241.86–58.77
Passes
53%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction425414839safe357–492348–481705–973safer339–510330–498670–1008
Pass accuracy %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction72.1174.47safe68.08–76.1470.15–78.80safer66.79–77.4368.84–80.11
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4913.8226.31safe9.66–15.3310.87–16.7620.53–32.09safer8.90–16.0910.12–17.5119.02–33.60
Offsides
50%
20%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.261.733.99safe1.10–3.420.63–2.821.74–6.24safer0.80–3.730.34–3.111.15–6.83
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.254.21safe0.91–3.011.13–3.382.03–6.39safer0.64–3.270.83–3.671.48–6.95
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.100.24safe0.00–0.300.00–0.290.00–0.59safer0.00–0.450.00–0.420.00–0.87
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.072.675.75safe1.64–4.511.12–4.232.75–8.74safer1.25–4.900.69–4.651.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.15–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 1.65 0.79–2.50 0.57–2.73 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.47–5.07 | 26% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.74 1.87–5.60 1.39–6.09 | 4.83 3.08–6.57 2.62–7.04 | 8.56 4.96–12.17 4.00–13.13 | 29% 58% |
| Total shots | 11.40 7.48–15.33 6.39–16.42 | 13.00 9.44–16.56 8.48–17.52 | 24.40 16.92–31.89 14.87–33.94 | 34% 59% |
| Shots in box | 6.83 3.89–9.77 3.06–10.60 | 8.59 5.91–11.27 5.18–12.01 | 15.42 9.80–21.05 8.23–22.61 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.08 1.20–4.96 0.65–5.50 | 3.07 1.42–4.72 0.92–5.22 | 6.15 2.61–9.68 1.58–10.72 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.63 2.42–6.85 1.84–7.42 | 4.92 2.92–6.92 2.39–7.46 | 9.56 5.34–13.77 4.24–14.88 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 49.26 42.47–56.05 40.80–57.72 | 50.32 43.53–57.10 41.86–58.77 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 425 357–492 339–510 | 414 348–481 330–498 | 839 705–973 670–1008 | 53% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.11 68.08–76.14 66.79–77.43 | 74.47 70.15–78.80 68.84–80.11 | — | 36% 60% |
| Fouls | 12.49 9.66–15.33 8.90–16.09 | 13.82 10.87–16.76 10.12–17.51 | 26.31 20.53–32.09 19.02–33.60 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 2.26 1.10–3.42 0.80–3.73 | 1.73 0.63–2.82 0.34–3.11 | 3.99 1.74–6.24 1.15–6.83 | 50% 20% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.64–3.27 | 2.25 1.13–3.38 0.83–3.67 | 4.21 2.03–6.39 1.48–6.95 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 2.67 1.12–4.23 0.69–4.65 | 5.75 2.75–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+