UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.340.803.14safe1.37–3.310.00–1.661.32–4.97safer1.12–3.560.00–1.880.84–5.45
Shots on target
86%
homeawaytotalprediction6.802.949.74safe4.94–8.671.20–4.686.14–13.35safer4.45–9.160.73–5.155.18–14.30
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.388.4626.84safe14.45–22.304.90–12.0219.35–34.33safer13.36–23.403.94–12.9817.30–36.38
Shots in box
97%
homeawaytotalprediction12.354.5816.93safe9.41–15.291.90–7.2611.31–22.55safer8.58–16.121.16–8.009.74–24.12
Blocked shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction4.761.746.50safe2.88–6.640.09–3.402.97–10.04safer2.33–7.190.00–3.891.93–11.07
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.742.839.57safe4.52–8.950.83–4.835.35–13.78safer3.95–9.520.30–5.364.25–14.89
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction65.7635.63safe58.97–72.5528.84–42.41safer57.30–74.2227.17–44.08
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction571304876safe504–639238–371742–1009safer486–657220–388706–1045
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction78.7468.89safe74.71–82.7764.56–73.21safer73.42–84.0663.25–74.52
Fouls
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8413.3928.23safe12.00–17.6810.45–16.3422.45–34.01safer11.24–18.439.70–17.0920.95–35.52
Offsides
47%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.423.25safe0.67–2.990.32–2.511.00–5.50safer0.37–3.290.04–2.800.41–6.09
Yellow cards
30%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.504.43safe0.88–2.981.37–3.632.25–6.60safer0.61–3.241.08–3.921.69–7.16
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.130.22safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.390.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
78%
homeawaytotalprediction2.094.576.66safe0.65–3.523.01–6.133.66–9.65safer0.26–3.912.59–6.552.85–10.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.34 1.37–3.31 1.12–3.56 | 0.80 0.00–1.66 0.00–1.88 | 3.14 1.32–4.97 0.84–5.45 | 72% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.80 4.94–8.67 4.45–9.16 | 2.94 1.20–4.68 0.73–5.15 | 9.74 6.14–13.35 5.18–14.30 | 86% |
| Total shots | 18.38 14.45–22.30 13.36–23.40 | 8.46 4.90–12.02 3.94–12.98 | 26.84 19.35–34.33 17.30–36.38 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 12.35 9.41–15.29 8.58–16.12 | 4.58 1.90–7.26 1.16–8.00 | 16.93 11.31–22.55 9.74–24.12 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 4.76 2.88–6.64 2.33–7.19 | 1.74 0.09–3.40 0.00–3.89 | 6.50 2.97–10.04 1.93–11.07 | 84% |
| Corners | 6.74 4.52–8.95 3.95–9.52 | 2.83 0.83–4.83 0.30–5.36 | 9.57 5.35–13.78 4.25–14.89 | 87% |
| Possession % | 65.76 58.97–72.55 57.30–74.22 | 35.63 28.84–42.41 27.17–44.08 | — | 96% |
| Passes | 571 504–639 486–657 | 304 238–371 220–388 | 876 742–1009 706–1045 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.74 74.71–82.77 73.42–84.06 | 68.89 64.56–73.21 63.25–74.52 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 14.84 12.00–17.68 11.24–18.43 | 13.39 10.45–16.34 9.70–17.09 | 28.23 22.45–34.01 20.95–35.52 | 57% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.42 0.32–2.51 0.04–2.80 | 3.25 1.00–5.50 0.41–6.09 | 47% 23% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.98 0.61–3.24 | 2.50 1.37–3.63 1.08–3.92 | 4.43 2.25–6.60 1.69–7.16 | 30% 19% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.09 0.65–3.52 0.26–3.91 | 4.57 3.01–6.13 2.59–6.55 | 6.66 3.66–9.65 2.85–10.46 | 78% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.