UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.012.40safe0.43–2.360.15–1.860.58–4.23safer0.18–2.620.00–2.090.10–4.71
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.593.137.72safe2.73–6.451.38–4.874.11–11.32safer2.24–6.940.92–5.333.16–12.28
Total shots
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction12.629.3521.96safe8.69–16.545.78–12.9114.48–29.45safer7.60–17.634.82–13.8712.43–31.50
Shots in box
75%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction7.925.0112.94safe4.98–10.862.33–7.697.31–18.56safer4.15–11.691.60–8.435.75–20.13
Blocked shots
72%
15%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction2.921.224.15safe1.04–4.810.00–2.880.61–7.68safer0.50–5.350.00–3.370.00–8.72
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.193.798.98safe2.98–7.401.79–5.794.77–13.20safer2.40–7.981.26–6.333.66–14.30
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.8246.72safe48.03–61.6139.94–53.51safer46.36–63.2838.27–55.18
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction464409874safe397–532343–476740–1007safer379–550325–493704–1043
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction79.1775.33safe75.14–83.2071.00–79.65safer73.85–84.4969.70–80.96
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0811.8624.94safe10.24–15.918.92–14.8119.16–30.72safer9.48–16.678.17–15.5617.65–32.23
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.633.54safe0.74–3.060.54–2.731.28–5.79safer0.44–3.360.25–3.010.69–6.38
Yellow cards
31%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.983.53safe0.51–2.610.85–3.111.36–5.71safer0.24–2.870.56–3.400.80–6.27
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.283.055.33safe0.84–3.721.49–4.612.34–8.32safer0.46–4.101.07–5.031.52–9.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.36 0.18–2.62 | 1.01 0.15–1.86 0.00–2.09 | 2.40 0.58–4.23 0.10–4.71 | 46% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.59 2.73–6.45 2.24–6.94 | 3.13 1.38–4.87 0.92–5.33 | 7.72 4.11–11.32 3.16–12.28 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 12.62 8.69–16.54 7.60–17.63 | 9.35 5.78–12.91 4.82–13.87 | 21.96 14.48–29.45 12.43–31.50 | 72% 21% |
| Shots in box | 7.92 4.98–10.86 4.15–11.69 | 5.01 2.33–7.69 1.60–8.43 | 12.94 7.31–18.56 5.75–20.13 | 75% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 1.04–4.81 0.50–5.35 | 1.22 0.00–2.88 0.00–3.37 | 4.15 0.61–7.68 0.00–8.72 | 72% 15% 13% |
| Corners | 5.19 2.98–7.40 2.40–7.98 | 3.79 1.79–5.79 1.26–6.33 | 8.98 4.77–13.20 3.66–14.30 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 54.82 48.03–61.61 46.36–63.28 | 46.72 39.94–53.51 38.27–55.18 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 464 397–532 379–550 | 409 343–476 325–493 | 874 740–1007 704–1043 | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.17 75.14–83.20 73.85–84.49 | 75.33 71.00–79.65 69.70–80.96 | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 13.08 10.24–15.91 9.48–16.67 | 11.86 8.92–14.81 8.17–15.56 | 24.94 19.16–30.72 17.65–32.23 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 1.63 0.54–2.73 0.25–3.01 | 3.54 1.28–5.79 0.69–6.38 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.24–2.87 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.53 1.36–5.71 0.80–6.27 | 31% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.28 0.84–3.72 0.46–4.10 | 3.05 1.49–4.61 1.07–5.03 | 5.33 2.34–8.32 1.52–9.13 | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.