UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
26%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.540.862.41safe0.58–2.510.01–1.720.59–4.23safer0.32–2.760.00–1.950.11–4.71
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.812.807.62safe2.95–6.681.06–4.554.01–11.22safer2.46–7.170.59–5.013.06–12.18
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction13.108.5221.62safe9.17–17.024.96–12.0814.13–29.11safer8.08–18.124.00–13.0412.08–31.16
Shots in box
74%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction8.145.2613.40safe5.20–11.082.57–7.947.77–19.02safer4.37–11.911.84–8.676.21–20.59
Blocked shots
79%
homeawaytotalprediction3.611.344.95safe1.72–5.490.00–3.001.41–8.48safer1.18–6.030.00–3.490.38–9.52
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.543.629.16safe3.33–7.751.62–5.624.95–13.38safer2.75–8.331.09–6.163.84–14.48
Possession %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction57.1243.56safe50.32–63.9136.78–50.35safer48.66–65.5735.11–52.02
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction477380857safe410–545313–446724–991safer392–563296–464688–1027
Pass accuracy %
70%
25%
homeawayprediction80.1275.48safe76.09–84.1571.15–79.80safer74.80–85.4569.84–81.11
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7912.1624.95safe9.96–15.639.21–15.1019.17–30.73safer9.20–16.398.46–15.8517.66–32.24
Offsides
47%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.523.44safe0.77–3.090.42–2.611.19–5.70safer0.47–3.390.13–2.900.60–6.29
Yellow cards
28%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.482.033.50safe0.43–2.530.90–3.161.33–5.68safer0.16–2.790.61–3.450.77–6.24
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.113.135.24safe0.67–3.551.57–4.692.25–8.23safer0.29–3.931.15–5.111.44–9.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.58–2.51 0.32–2.76 | 0.86 0.01–1.72 0.00–1.95 | 2.41 0.59–4.23 0.11–4.71 | 53% 26% 21% |
| Shots on target | 4.81 2.95–6.68 2.46–7.17 | 2.80 1.06–4.55 0.59–5.01 | 7.62 4.01–11.22 3.06–12.18 | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 13.10 9.17–17.02 8.08–18.12 | 8.52 4.96–12.08 4.00–13.04 | 21.62 14.13–29.11 12.08–31.16 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 8.14 5.20–11.08 4.37–11.91 | 5.26 2.57–7.94 1.84–8.67 | 13.40 7.77–19.02 6.21–20.59 | 74% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 1.72–5.49 1.18–6.03 | 1.34 0.00–3.00 0.00–3.49 | 4.95 1.41–8.48 0.38–9.52 | 79% |
| Corners | 5.54 3.33–7.75 2.75–8.33 | 3.62 1.62–5.62 1.09–6.16 | 9.16 4.95–13.38 3.84–14.48 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 57.12 50.32–63.91 48.66–65.57 | 43.56 36.78–50.35 35.11–52.02 | — | 77% 19% |
| Passes | 477 410–545 392–563 | 380 313–446 296–464 | 857 724–991 688–1027 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.12 76.09–84.15 74.80–85.45 | 75.48 71.15–79.80 69.84–81.11 | — | 70% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.79 9.96–15.63 9.20–16.39 | 12.16 9.21–15.10 8.46–15.85 | 24.95 19.17–30.73 17.66–32.24 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 1.52 0.42–2.61 0.13–2.90 | 3.44 1.19–5.70 0.60–6.29 | 47% 22% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 0.43–2.53 0.16–2.79 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 3.50 1.33–5.68 0.77–6.24 | 28% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.11 0.67–3.55 0.29–3.93 | 3.13 1.57–4.69 1.15–5.11 | 5.24 2.25–8.23 1.44–9.04 | 25% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.