UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
21%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.013.04safe1.06–3.000.15–1.861.21–4.86safer0.81–3.250.00–2.090.73–5.34
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.973.079.04safe4.11–7.841.33–4.815.44–12.65safer3.62–8.330.86–5.284.48–13.60
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.359.4626.80safe13.42–21.275.89–13.0219.32–34.29safer12.33–22.364.93–13.9817.27–36.34
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction11.806.5318.33safe8.86–14.743.85–9.2112.70–23.95safer8.03–15.573.11–9.9511.14–25.52
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.552.627.17safe2.67–6.430.97–4.283.64–10.71safer2.12–6.970.48–4.772.60–11.74
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.213.429.62safe3.99–8.421.42–5.425.41–13.84safer3.42–9.000.88–5.954.30–14.95
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction57.9643.24safe51.17–64.7536.46–50.03safer49.50–66.4234.79–51.70
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction549405954safe482–616339–471820–1087safer463–634321–489784–1123
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction78.3675.80safe74.33–82.3971.48–80.13safer73.03–83.6870.17–81.44
Fouls
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1410.3821.52safe8.30–13.977.44–13.3215.73–27.30safer7.54–14.736.69–14.0714.23–28.80
Offsides
43%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.793.77safe0.82–3.140.70–2.881.52–6.03safer0.52–3.450.41–3.170.93–6.62
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.643.31safe0.62–2.720.51–2.771.13–5.49safer0.35–2.980.22–3.060.57–6.05
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
21%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.996.44safe1.01–3.882.43–5.543.44–9.43safer0.63–4.272.01–5.972.63–10.24
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.03 1.06–3.00 0.81–3.25 | 1.01 0.15–1.86 0.00–2.09 | 3.04 1.21–4.86 0.73–5.34 | 61% 21% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.97 4.11–7.84 3.62–8.33 | 3.07 1.33–4.81 0.86–5.28 | 9.04 5.44–12.65 4.48–13.60 | 79% |
| Total shots | 17.35 13.42–21.27 12.33–22.36 | 9.46 5.89–13.02 4.93–13.98 | 26.80 19.32–34.29 17.27–36.34 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 11.80 8.86–14.74 8.03–15.57 | 6.53 3.85–9.21 3.11–9.95 | 18.33 12.70–23.95 11.14–25.52 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 4.55 2.67–6.43 2.12–6.97 | 2.62 0.97–4.28 0.48–4.77 | 7.17 3.64–10.71 2.60–11.74 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 6.21 3.99–8.42 3.42–9.00 | 3.42 1.42–5.42 0.88–5.95 | 9.62 5.41–13.84 4.30–14.95 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 57.96 51.17–64.75 49.50–66.42 | 43.24 36.46–50.03 34.79–51.70 | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 549 482–616 463–634 | 405 339–471 321–489 | 954 820–1087 784–1123 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.36 74.33–82.39 73.03–83.68 | 75.80 71.48–80.13 70.17–81.44 | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 11.14 8.30–13.97 7.54–14.73 | 10.38 7.44–13.32 6.69–14.07 | 21.52 15.73–27.30 14.23–28.80 | 52% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.45 | 1.79 0.70–2.88 0.41–3.17 | 3.77 1.52–6.03 0.93–6.62 | 43% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.35–2.98 | 1.64 0.51–2.77 0.22–3.06 | 3.31 1.13–5.49 0.57–6.05 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.01–3.88 0.63–4.27 | 3.99 2.43–5.54 2.01–5.97 | 6.44 3.44–9.43 2.63–10.24 | 21% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.