UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
24%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.662.99safe0.35–2.290.81–2.521.16–4.81safer0.10–2.540.58–2.750.68–5.29
Shots on target
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.445.549.98safe2.58–6.303.79–7.286.37–13.58safer2.09–6.793.33–7.745.42–14.54
Total shots
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6614.9728.63safe9.73–17.5811.41–18.5321.14–36.12safer8.64–18.6710.45–19.4919.09–38.17
Shots in box
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8810.3519.23safe5.94–11.827.67–13.0313.60–24.85safer5.11–12.656.93–13.7712.04–26.42
Blocked shots
30%
13%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.664.648.30safe1.78–5.542.98–6.294.76–11.83safer1.23–6.092.49–6.783.73–12.87
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.585.119.70safe2.37–6.803.11–7.115.48–13.91safer1.80–7.372.58–7.654.38–15.02
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction42.5857.64safe35.79–49.3750.86–64.43safer34.12–51.0449.18–66.10
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction417582999safe349–484516–649865–1132safer331–502498–666829–1168
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction70.7980.04safe66.77–74.8275.72–84.37safer65.47–76.1274.41–85.68
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1510.1420.28safe7.31–12.987.19–13.0814.50–26.07safer6.55–13.746.44–13.8313.00–27.57
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.883.78safe0.74–3.060.79–2.971.53–6.04safer0.44–3.360.50–3.260.94–6.63
Yellow cards
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.392.93safe0.49–2.590.26–2.520.75–5.11safer0.22–2.850.00–2.810.20–5.67
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
52%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.532.916.44safe2.09–4.961.36–4.473.45–9.44safer1.70–5.350.93–4.902.64–10.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.66 0.81–2.52 0.58–2.75 | 2.99 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.29 | 30% 24% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.44 2.58–6.30 2.09–6.79 | 5.54 3.79–7.28 3.33–7.74 | 9.98 6.37–13.58 5.42–14.54 | 31% 57% |
| Total shots | 13.66 9.73–17.58 8.64–18.67 | 14.97 11.41–18.53 10.45–19.49 | 28.63 21.14–36.12 19.09–38.17 | 37% 56% |
| Shots in box | 8.88 5.94–11.82 5.11–12.65 | 10.35 7.67–13.03 6.93–13.77 | 19.23 13.60–24.85 12.04–26.42 | 33% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 1.78–5.54 1.23–6.09 | 4.64 2.98–6.29 2.49–6.78 | 8.30 4.76–11.83 3.73–12.87 | 30% 13% 56% |
| Corners | 4.58 2.37–6.80 1.80–7.37 | 5.11 3.11–7.11 2.58–7.65 | 9.70 5.48–13.91 4.38–15.02 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 42.58 35.79–49.37 34.12–51.04 | 57.64 50.86–64.43 49.18–66.10 | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 417 349–484 331–502 | 582 516–649 498–666 | 999 865–1132 829–1168 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.79 66.77–74.82 65.47–76.12 | 80.04 75.72–84.37 74.41–85.68 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 10.15 7.31–12.98 6.55–13.74 | 10.14 7.19–13.08 6.44–13.83 | 20.28 14.50–26.07 13.00–27.57 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 1.88 0.79–2.97 0.50–3.26 | 3.78 1.53–6.04 0.94–6.63 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.22–2.85 | 1.39 0.26–2.52 0.00–2.81 | 2.93 0.75–5.11 0.20–5.67 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.53 2.09–4.96 1.70–5.35 | 2.91 1.36–4.47 0.93–4.90 | 6.44 3.45–9.44 2.64–10.25 | 52% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.