UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
65%
20%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.140.933.06safe1.17–3.110.07–1.781.24–4.89safer0.92–3.360.00–2.010.76–5.37
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.363.189.54safe4.49–8.221.44–4.925.93–13.14safer4.00–8.710.97–5.394.98–14.10
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction18.759.5328.28safe14.83–22.685.96–13.0920.79–35.77safer13.74–23.775.00–14.0518.74–37.82
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction12.086.1518.23safe9.14–15.023.47–8.8312.61–23.85safer8.31–15.852.73–9.5711.04–25.42
Blocked shots
77%
homeawaytotalprediction4.732.307.03safe2.85–6.610.65–3.963.50–10.57safer2.31–7.160.16–4.452.46–11.61
Corners
82%
homeawaytotalprediction6.633.249.87safe4.42–8.841.24–5.245.66–14.08safer3.84–9.420.71–5.774.55–15.19
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction59.7240.32safe52.92–66.5133.54–47.11safer51.26–68.1831.87–48.78
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction556383939safe489–623317–450806–1073safer471–642299–467770–1109
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction78.7473.93safe74.71–82.7769.60–78.25safer73.42–84.0668.29–79.56
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5310.9022.43safe8.70–14.377.96–13.8416.65–28.22safer7.94–15.137.21–14.5915.15–29.72
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.603.50safe0.74–3.060.51–2.701.25–5.76safer0.44–3.360.22–2.990.66–6.35
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.893.30safe0.37–2.460.76–3.021.12–5.48safer0.10–2.730.47–3.310.57–6.04
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.504.006.49safe1.06–3.932.44–5.553.50–9.49safer0.67–4.322.02–5.982.69–10.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.14 1.17–3.11 0.92–3.36 | 0.93 0.07–1.78 0.00–2.01 | 3.06 1.24–4.89 0.76–5.37 | 65% 20% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.36 4.49–8.22 4.00–8.71 | 3.18 1.44–4.92 0.97–5.39 | 9.54 5.93–13.14 4.98–14.10 | 81% |
| Total shots | 18.75 14.83–22.68 13.74–23.77 | 9.53 5.96–13.09 5.00–14.05 | 28.28 20.79–35.77 18.74–37.82 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 12.08 9.14–15.02 8.31–15.85 | 6.15 3.47–8.83 2.73–9.57 | 18.23 12.61–23.85 11.04–25.42 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 4.73 2.85–6.61 2.31–7.16 | 2.30 0.65–3.96 0.16–4.45 | 7.03 3.50–10.57 2.46–11.61 | 77% |
| Corners | 6.63 4.42–8.84 3.84–9.42 | 3.24 1.24–5.24 0.71–5.77 | 9.87 5.66–14.08 4.55–15.19 | 82% |
| Possession % | 59.72 52.92–66.51 51.26–68.18 | 40.32 33.54–47.11 31.87–48.78 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 556 489–623 471–642 | 383 317–450 299–467 | 939 806–1073 770–1109 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.74 74.71–82.77 73.42–84.06 | 73.93 69.60–78.25 68.29–79.56 | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 11.53 8.70–14.37 7.94–15.13 | 10.90 7.96–13.84 7.21–14.59 | 22.43 16.65–28.22 15.15–29.72 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 1.60 0.51–2.70 0.22–2.99 | 3.50 1.25–5.76 0.66–6.35 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.41 0.37–2.46 0.10–2.73 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.30 1.12–5.48 0.57–6.04 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 4.00 2.44–5.55 2.02–5.98 | 6.49 3.50–9.49 2.69–10.30 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.