UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
23%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.862.93safe0.10–2.031.01–2.721.11–4.75safer0.00–2.280.78–2.950.63–5.23
Shots on target
25%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.595.048.63safe1.73–5.463.29–6.785.03–12.24safer1.24–5.952.83–7.254.07–13.19
Total shots
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6512.7923.44safe6.73–14.589.22–16.3515.95–30.93safer5.64–15.678.26–17.3113.90–32.98
Shots in box
19%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction6.159.0415.19safe3.21–9.106.36–11.729.57–20.81safer2.38–9.935.62–12.468.00–22.38
Blocked shots
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.336.20safe0.99–4.751.68–4.982.66–9.73safer0.44–5.291.18–5.471.63–10.77
Corners
25%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction4.215.8710.08safe1.99–6.423.87–7.875.86–14.29safer1.42–6.993.34–8.404.76–15.40
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction42.6756.76safe35.88–49.4649.98–63.55safer34.21–51.1348.31–65.22
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction359474832safe291–426407–540699–966safer273–444390–558663–1002
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction65.4673.99safe61.43–69.4969.67–78.32safer60.14–70.7868.36–79.62
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9811.6024.58safe10.14–15.828.66–14.5518.80–30.37safer9.39–16.577.91–15.3017.30–31.87
Offsides
36%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.522.94safe0.26–2.580.42–2.610.69–5.19safer0.00–2.890.13–2.900.10–5.78
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.043.86safe0.78–2.880.91–3.161.68–6.04safer0.51–3.140.61–3.461.13–6.60
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.302.365.66safe1.87–4.740.80–3.912.67–8.65safer1.48–5.130.38–4.341.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.10–2.03 0.00–2.28 | 1.86 1.01–2.72 0.78–2.95 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.63–5.23 | 21% 23% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.59 1.73–5.46 1.24–5.95 | 5.04 3.29–6.78 2.83–7.25 | 8.63 5.03–12.24 4.07–13.19 | 25% 62% |
| Total shots | 10.65 6.73–14.58 5.64–15.67 | 12.79 9.22–16.35 8.26–17.31 | 23.44 15.95–30.93 13.90–32.98 | 29% 63% |
| Shots in box | 6.15 3.21–9.10 2.38–9.93 | 9.04 6.36–11.72 5.62–12.46 | 15.19 9.57–20.81 8.00–22.38 | 19% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 2.87 0.99–4.75 0.44–5.29 | 3.33 1.68–4.98 1.18–5.47 | 6.20 2.66–9.73 1.63–10.77 | 35% 16% 49% |
| Corners | 4.21 1.99–6.42 1.42–6.99 | 5.87 3.87–7.87 3.34–8.40 | 10.08 5.86–14.29 4.76–15.40 | 25% 64% |
| Possession % | 42.67 35.88–49.46 34.21–51.13 | 56.76 49.98–63.55 48.31–65.22 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 359 291–426 273–444 | 474 407–540 390–558 | 832 699–966 663–1002 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.46 61.43–69.49 60.14–70.78 | 73.99 69.67–78.32 68.36–79.62 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 12.98 10.14–15.82 9.39–16.57 | 11.60 8.66–14.55 7.91–15.30 | 24.58 18.80–30.37 17.30–31.87 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.89 | 1.52 0.42–2.61 0.13–2.90 | 2.94 0.69–5.19 0.10–5.78 | 36% 25% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.51–3.14 | 2.04 0.91–3.16 0.61–3.46 | 3.86 1.68–6.04 1.13–6.60 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.30 1.87–4.74 1.48–5.13 | 2.36 0.80–3.91 0.38–4.34 | 5.66 2.67–8.65 1.85–9.46 | 57% 16% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.