UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.572.96safe0.42–2.350.72–2.431.14–4.78safer0.17–2.600.49–2.660.66–5.26
Shots on target
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.754.989.72safe2.88–6.613.24–6.726.12–13.33safer2.39–7.102.77–7.195.16–14.28
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1613.2826.44safe9.24–17.099.71–16.8418.95–33.93safer8.15–18.188.75–17.8016.90–35.98
Shots in box
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.658.5017.15safe5.71–11.595.82–11.1811.53–22.77safer4.88–12.425.08–11.929.96–24.34
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.893.167.05safe2.01–5.771.50–4.813.51–10.58safer1.47–6.321.01–5.302.48–11.62
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.774.359.11safe2.55–6.982.35–6.354.90–13.33safer1.98–7.551.81–6.883.79–14.44
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction53.9346.12safe47.14–60.7339.34–52.91safer45.47–62.3937.66–54.58
Passes
70%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction457392850safe390–525326–459716–984safer372–543308–476681–1019
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction78.0074.98safe73.97–82.0370.66–79.30safer72.68–83.3269.35–80.61
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1913.0625.25safe9.35–15.0210.12–16.0119.47–31.03safer8.59–15.789.37–16.7617.96–32.54
Offsides
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.033.73safe0.54–2.860.93–3.121.47–5.98safer0.24–3.160.65–3.410.88–6.57
Yellow cards
44%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.114.41safe1.25–3.350.98–3.242.23–6.59safer0.99–3.620.69–3.531.68–7.15
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.353.236.58safe1.91–4.781.68–4.793.59–9.57safer1.52–5.171.25–5.212.77–10.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.35 0.17–2.60 | 1.57 0.72–2.43 0.49–2.66 | 2.96 1.14–4.78 0.66–5.26 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.75 2.88–6.61 2.39–7.10 | 4.98 3.24–6.72 2.77–7.19 | 9.72 6.12–13.33 5.16–14.28 | 41% 46% |
| Total shots | 13.16 9.24–17.09 8.15–18.18 | 13.28 9.71–16.84 8.75–17.80 | 26.44 18.95–33.93 16.90–35.98 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 8.65 5.71–11.59 4.88–12.42 | 8.50 5.82–11.18 5.08–11.92 | 17.15 11.53–22.77 9.96–24.34 | 47% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.89 2.01–5.77 1.47–6.32 | 3.16 1.50–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 7.05 3.51–10.58 2.48–11.62 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 4.77 2.55–6.98 1.98–7.55 | 4.35 2.35–6.35 1.81–6.88 | 9.11 4.90–13.33 3.79–14.44 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 53.93 47.14–60.73 45.47–62.39 | 46.12 39.34–52.91 37.66–54.58 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 457 390–525 372–543 | 392 326–459 308–476 | 850 716–984 681–1019 | 70% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.00 73.97–82.03 72.68–83.32 | 74.98 70.66–79.30 69.35–80.61 | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 12.19 9.35–15.02 8.59–15.78 | 13.06 10.12–16.01 9.37–16.76 | 25.25 19.47–31.03 17.96–32.54 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.24–3.16 | 2.03 0.93–3.12 0.65–3.41 | 3.73 1.47–5.98 0.88–6.57 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.25–3.35 0.99–3.62 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 4.41 2.23–6.59 1.68–7.15 | 44% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.35 1.91–4.78 1.52–5.17 | 3.23 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.21 | 6.58 3.59–9.57 2.77–10.38 | 44% 16% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.