UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
65%
20%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.070.882.95safe1.10–3.040.03–1.741.13–4.78safer0.85–3.290.00–1.970.65–5.26
Shots on target
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.213.439.64safe4.35–8.071.69–5.186.04–13.25safer3.86–8.561.23–5.645.08–14.21
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction16.658.9125.56safe12.73–20.585.35–12.4718.08–33.05safer11.64–21.674.39–13.4316.02–35.10
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction10.495.0515.54safe7.55–13.432.37–7.739.92–21.17safer6.72–14.261.64–8.478.35–22.73
Blocked shots
76%
homeawaytotalprediction4.061.845.90safe2.18–5.940.19–3.492.36–9.43safer1.63–6.490.00–3.981.33–10.47
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.253.159.40safe4.03–8.461.15–5.155.19–13.61safer3.46–9.030.62–5.694.08–14.72
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction61.5340.23safe54.74–68.3233.44–47.01safer53.07–69.9931.77–48.68
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction539373912safe472–607306–439779–1046safer454–625289–457743–1082
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction83.4875.58safe79.45–87.5171.26–79.91safer78.16–88.8069.95–81.21
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2313.0225.24safe9.39–15.0610.07–15.9619.46–31.02safer8.63–15.829.32–16.7117.96–32.53
Offsides
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.284.12safe0.68–3.001.18–3.371.87–6.37safer0.38–3.300.90–3.661.28–6.96
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.873.63safe0.72–2.820.74–3.001.46–5.81safer0.45–3.080.45–3.290.90–6.37
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.140.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.320.00–0.57safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.85
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.313.575.88safe0.87–3.752.01–5.132.89–8.87safer0.49–4.131.59–5.552.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.07 1.10–3.04 0.85–3.29 | 0.88 0.03–1.74 0.00–1.97 | 2.95 1.13–4.78 0.65–5.26 | 65% 20% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.21 4.35–8.07 3.86–8.56 | 3.43 1.69–5.18 1.23–5.64 | 9.64 6.04–13.25 5.08–14.21 | 77% 14% |
| Total shots | 16.65 12.73–20.58 11.64–21.67 | 8.91 5.35–12.47 4.39–13.43 | 25.56 18.08–33.05 16.02–35.10 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 10.49 7.55–13.43 6.72–14.26 | 5.05 2.37–7.73 1.64–8.47 | 15.54 9.92–21.17 8.35–22.73 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 2.18–5.94 1.63–6.49 | 1.84 0.19–3.49 0.00–3.98 | 5.90 2.36–9.43 1.33–10.47 | 76% |
| Corners | 6.25 4.03–8.46 3.46–9.03 | 3.15 1.15–5.15 0.62–5.69 | 9.40 5.19–13.61 4.08–14.72 | 80% |
| Possession % | 61.53 54.74–68.32 53.07–69.99 | 40.23 33.44–47.01 31.77–48.68 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 539 472–607 454–625 | 373 306–439 289–457 | 912 779–1046 743–1082 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.48 79.45–87.51 78.16–88.80 | 75.58 71.26–79.91 69.95–81.21 | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 12.23 9.39–15.06 8.63–15.82 | 13.02 10.07–15.96 9.32–16.71 | 25.24 19.46–31.02 17.96–32.53 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.38–3.30 | 2.28 1.18–3.37 0.90–3.66 | 4.12 1.87–6.37 1.28–6.96 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.45–3.08 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.63 1.46–5.81 0.90–6.37 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.31 0.87–3.75 0.49–4.13 | 3.57 2.01–5.13 1.59–5.55 | 5.88 2.89–8.87 2.07–9.68 | 23% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.