UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
24%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.142.90safe0.79–2.720.29–2.001.08–4.72safer0.54–2.980.06–2.230.60–5.20
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.049.50safe3.60–7.322.30–5.785.89–13.10safer3.11–7.811.83–6.254.94–14.06
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8211.5627.38safe11.90–19.758.00–15.1219.90–34.87safer10.81–20.847.04–16.0817.85–36.92
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction11.207.3518.56safe8.26–14.144.67–10.0312.93–24.18safer7.43–14.973.94–10.7711.37–25.75
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.013.117.11safe2.12–5.891.45–4.763.58–10.65safer1.58–6.430.96–5.252.54–11.68
Corners
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.763.569.32safe3.55–7.971.56–5.565.10–13.53safer2.97–8.551.02–6.094.00–14.64
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.5046.61safe45.71–59.2939.82–53.39safer44.04–60.9638.15–55.06
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction482424906safe415–549357–490772–1040safer397–568340–508737–1075
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction70.8870.97safe66.85–74.9166.64–75.29safer65.56–76.2065.33–76.60
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1711.0421.21safe7.33–13.018.10–13.9915.43–26.99safer6.58–13.767.35–14.7313.92–28.50
Offsides
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.113.77safe0.50–2.821.02–3.201.52–6.03safer0.20–3.120.73–3.490.93–6.62
Yellow cards
30%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.043.63safe0.54–2.640.91–3.171.45–5.81safer0.27–2.910.62–3.460.90–6.37
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.673.606.27safe1.23–4.112.04–5.153.28–9.26safer0.85–4.491.62–5.582.46–10.07
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.72 0.54–2.98 | 1.14 0.29–2.00 0.06–2.23 | 2.90 1.08–4.72 0.60–5.20 | 52% 24% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.46 3.60–7.32 3.11–7.81 | 4.04 2.30–5.78 1.83–6.25 | 9.50 5.89–13.10 4.94–14.06 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 15.82 11.90–19.75 10.81–20.84 | 11.56 8.00–15.12 7.04–16.08 | 27.38 19.90–34.87 17.85–36.92 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 11.20 8.26–14.14 7.43–14.97 | 7.35 4.67–10.03 3.94–10.77 | 18.56 12.93–24.18 11.37–25.75 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.01 2.12–5.89 1.58–6.43 | 3.11 1.45–4.76 0.96–5.25 | 7.11 3.58–10.65 2.54–11.68 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.76 3.55–7.97 2.97–8.55 | 3.56 1.56–5.56 1.02–6.09 | 9.32 5.10–13.53 4.00–14.64 | 71% 18% |
| Possession % | 52.50 45.71–59.29 44.04–60.96 | 46.61 39.82–53.39 38.15–55.06 | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 482 415–549 397–568 | 424 357–490 340–508 | 906 772–1040 737–1075 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.88 66.85–74.91 65.56–76.20 | 70.97 66.64–75.29 65.33–76.60 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 10.17 7.33–13.01 6.58–13.76 | 11.04 8.10–13.99 7.35–14.73 | 21.21 15.43–26.99 13.92–28.50 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 2.11 1.02–3.20 0.73–3.49 | 3.77 1.52–6.03 0.93–6.62 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.27–2.91 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.63 1.45–5.81 0.90–6.37 | 30% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.23–4.11 0.85–4.49 | 3.60 2.04–5.15 1.62–5.58 | 6.27 3.28–9.26 2.46–10.07 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.