UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa Conference League·League Stage - 1·Predicted match statistics
Goals
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.200.732.93safe1.23–3.160.00–1.591.10–4.75safer0.98–3.410.00–1.820.63–5.23
Shots on target
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.252.658.90safe4.39–8.110.91–4.395.30–12.51safer3.90–8.600.44–4.864.34–13.46
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction17.729.2326.95safe13.80–21.655.67–12.8019.47–34.44safer12.70–22.744.71–13.7617.42–36.49
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction12.355.0217.37safe9.40–15.292.34–7.7011.74–22.99safer8.57–16.121.60–8.4410.18–24.56
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction4.912.056.96safe3.03–6.790.39–3.703.42–10.49safer2.48–7.340.00–4.192.39–11.53
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction7.103.0310.13safe4.89–9.321.03–5.035.92–14.34safer4.32–9.890.49–5.564.81–15.45
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction62.1636.78safe55.37–68.9530.00–43.57safer53.70–70.6228.33–45.24
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction552311863safe485–619244–377729–997safer467–638227–395694–1032
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction75.2265.75safe71.19–79.2561.42–70.07safer69.90–80.5560.11–71.38
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9611.7423.69safe9.12–14.808.79–14.6817.91–29.48safer8.37–15.558.04–15.4316.41–30.98
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.843.49safe0.49–2.810.75–2.931.24–5.75safer0.19–3.120.46–3.220.65–6.34
Yellow cards
19%
18%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.372.563.92safe0.32–2.411.43–3.691.75–6.10safer0.05–2.681.14–3.981.19–6.66
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
16%
13%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction1.953.755.70safe0.51–3.382.20–5.312.71–8.69safer0.13–3.771.77–5.731.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.20 1.23–3.16 0.98–3.41 | 0.73 0.00–1.59 0.00–1.82 | 2.93 1.10–4.75 0.63–5.23 | 71% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.25 4.39–8.11 3.90–8.60 | 2.65 0.91–4.39 0.44–4.86 | 8.90 5.30–12.51 4.34–13.46 | 85% |
| Total shots | 17.72 13.80–21.65 12.70–22.74 | 9.23 5.67–12.80 4.71–13.76 | 26.95 19.47–34.44 17.42–36.49 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 12.35 9.40–15.29 8.57–16.12 | 5.02 2.34–7.70 1.60–8.44 | 17.37 11.74–22.99 10.18–24.56 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 4.91 3.03–6.79 2.48–7.34 | 2.05 0.39–3.70 0.00–4.19 | 6.96 3.42–10.49 2.39–11.53 | 82% |
| Corners | 7.10 4.89–9.32 4.32–9.89 | 3.03 1.03–5.03 0.49–5.56 | 10.13 5.92–14.34 4.81–15.45 | 87% |
| Possession % | 62.16 55.37–68.95 53.70–70.62 | 36.78 30.00–43.57 28.33–45.24 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 552 485–619 467–638 | 311 244–377 227–395 | 863 729–997 694–1032 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.22 71.19–79.25 69.90–80.55 | 65.75 61.42–70.07 60.11–71.38 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 11.96 9.12–14.80 8.37–15.55 | 11.74 8.79–14.68 8.04–15.43 | 23.69 17.91–29.48 16.41–30.98 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.12 | 1.84 0.75–2.93 0.46–3.22 | 3.49 1.24–5.75 0.65–6.34 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 0.32–2.41 0.05–2.68 | 2.56 1.43–3.69 1.14–3.98 | 3.92 1.75–6.10 1.19–6.66 | 19% 18% 63% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.95 0.51–3.38 0.13–3.77 | 3.75 2.20–5.31 1.77–5.73 | 5.70 2.71–8.69 1.90–9.51 | 16% 13% 71% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.