FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
53%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.052.75safe0.74–2.660.19–1.910.93–4.57safer0.48–2.920.00–2.150.42–5.08actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.174.4010.57safe4.32–8.032.69–6.117.01–14.14safer3.82–8.532.22–6.586.04–15.11
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3613.3128.67safe11.66–19.079.93–16.6921.59–35.75safer10.63–20.109.00–17.6219.63–37.71
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.126.1715.29safe6.60–11.643.87–8.4710.48–20.11safer5.74–12.503.07–9.278.81–21.77
Blocked shots
43%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.153.066.21safe1.56–4.731.65–4.483.21–9.21safer1.03–5.261.16–4.962.19–10.23
Corners
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.783.737.51safe1.58–5.991.76–5.713.33–11.70safer0.98–6.581.22–6.252.20–12.83
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction54.8045.26safe48.49–61.1238.94–51.58safer46.89–62.7237.34–53.17
Passes
86%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction457329786safe392–522264–393656–915safer374–540246–411620–951
Pass accuracy %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction71.3463.88safe67.13–75.5659.37–68.38safer65.82–76.8658.04–69.71
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3912.4524.84safe9.54–15.259.50–15.3919.04–30.64safer8.65–16.148.58–16.3117.23–32.45
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.663.33safe0.47–2.890.49–2.820.96–5.70safer0.12–3.230.16–3.150.28–6.38
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.883.37safe0.43–2.540.76–3.001.19–5.54safer0.16–2.810.47–3.290.63–6.11
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.050.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.240.00–0.47safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.652.925.57safe1.24–4.071.36–4.472.60–8.54safer0.85–4.460.93–4.901.78–9.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.74–2.66 0.48–2.92 | 2.00 | 1.05 0.19–1.91 0.00–2.15 | 2.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 4.00 | 53% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 6.17 4.32–8.03 3.82–8.53 | — | 4.40 2.69–6.11 2.22–6.58 | — | 10.57 7.01–14.14 6.04–15.11 | — | 65% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.36 11.66–19.07 10.63–20.10 | — | 13.31 9.93–16.69 9.00–17.62 | — | 28.67 21.59–35.75 19.63–37.71 | — | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.12 6.60–11.64 5.74–12.50 | — | 6.17 3.87–8.47 3.07–9.27 | — | 15.29 10.48–20.11 8.81–21.77 | — | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.15 1.56–4.73 1.03–5.26 | — | 3.06 1.65–4.48 1.16–4.96 | — | 6.21 3.21–9.21 2.19–10.23 | — | 43% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 3.78 1.58–5.99 0.98–6.58 | — | 3.73 1.76–5.71 1.22–6.25 | — | 7.51 3.33–11.70 2.20–12.83 | — | 43% 15% 42% |
| Possession % | 54.80 48.49–61.12 46.89–62.72 | — | 45.26 38.94–51.58 37.34–53.17 | — | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 457 392–522 374–540 | — | 329 264–393 246–411 | — | 786 656–915 620–951 | — | 86% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.34 67.13–75.56 65.82–76.86 | — | 63.88 59.37–68.38 58.04–69.71 | — | — | — | 81% 16% |
| Fouls | 12.39 9.54–15.25 8.65–16.14 | — | 12.45 9.50–15.39 8.58–16.31 | — | 24.84 19.04–30.64 17.23–32.45 | — | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.47–2.89 0.12–3.23 | — | 1.66 0.49–2.82 0.16–3.15 | — | 3.33 0.96–5.70 0.28–6.38 | — | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.43–2.54 0.16–2.81 | — | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | — | 3.37 1.19–5.54 0.63–6.11 | — | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.24–4.07 0.85–4.46 | — | 2.92 1.36–4.47 0.93–4.90 | — | 5.57 2.60–8.54 1.78–9.36 | — | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.