FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
44%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.433.13safe0.74–2.660.57–2.291.31–4.96safer0.48–2.930.32–2.540.80–5.46actual5.002.007.00
Shots on target
42%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.679.21safe2.69–6.402.96–6.375.65–12.77safer2.19–6.902.49–6.844.68–13.74
Total shots
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7914.8926.68safe8.08–15.4911.51–18.2719.60–33.76safer7.05–16.5210.58–19.2017.64–35.72
Shots in box
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.727.5417.26safe7.21–12.245.24–9.8412.44–22.08safer6.34–13.104.44–10.6310.78–23.74
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.803.377.17safe2.21–5.381.96–4.794.17–10.17safer1.68–5.921.47–5.273.15–11.19
Corners
33%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.144.939.07safe1.93–6.342.95–6.914.89–13.25safer1.34–6.942.42–7.453.75–14.39
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction48.8650.08safe42.54–55.1743.77–56.40safer40.94–56.7742.17–58.00
Passes
42%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction364386750safe299–429321–450620–880safer281–447304–468585–915
Pass accuracy %
47%
49%
homeawayprediction68.1468.34safe63.93–72.3663.84–72.85safer62.63–73.6662.51–74.18
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7712.2324.00safe8.92–14.639.28–15.1718.20–29.80safer8.03–15.528.36–16.0916.40–31.61
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.883.58safe0.49–2.900.72–3.041.20–5.95safer0.14–3.250.39–3.380.53–6.62
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.823.64safe0.76–2.870.70–2.941.46–5.82safer0.49–3.150.41–3.230.90–6.38
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.932.845.77safe1.51–4.341.28–4.392.80–8.73safer1.12–4.730.85–4.821.98–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.74–2.66 0.48–2.93 | 5.00 | 1.43 0.57–2.29 0.32–2.54 | 2.00 | 3.13 1.31–4.96 0.80–5.46 | 7.00 | 44% 23% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.69–6.40 2.19–6.90 | — | 4.67 2.96–6.37 2.49–6.84 | — | 9.21 5.65–12.77 4.68–13.74 | — | 42% 13% 45% |
| Total shots | 11.79 8.08–15.49 7.05–16.52 | — | 14.89 11.51–18.27 10.58–19.20 | — | 26.68 19.60–33.76 17.64–35.72 | — | 24% 69% |
| Shots in box | 9.72 7.21–12.24 6.34–13.10 | — | 7.54 5.24–9.84 4.44–10.63 | — | 17.26 12.44–22.08 10.78–23.74 | — | 66% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.80 2.21–5.38 1.68–5.92 | — | 3.37 1.96–4.79 1.47–5.27 | — | 7.17 4.17–10.17 3.15–11.19 | — | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 4.14 1.93–6.34 1.34–6.94 | — | 4.93 2.95–6.91 2.42–7.45 | — | 9.07 4.89–13.25 3.75–14.39 | — | 33% 13% 54% |
| Possession % | 48.86 42.54–55.17 40.94–56.77 | — | 50.08 43.77–56.40 42.17–58.00 | — | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 364 299–429 281–447 | — | 386 321–450 304–468 | — | 750 620–880 585–915 | — | 42% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.14 63.93–72.36 62.63–73.66 | — | 68.34 63.84–72.85 62.51–74.18 | — | — | — | 47% 49% |
| Fouls | 11.77 8.92–14.63 8.03–15.52 | — | 12.23 9.28–15.17 8.36–16.09 | — | 24.00 18.20–29.80 16.40–31.61 | — | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.49–2.90 0.14–3.25 | — | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.39–3.38 | — | 3.58 1.20–5.95 0.53–6.62 | — | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.76–2.87 0.49–3.15 | — | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | — | 3.64 1.46–5.82 0.90–6.38 | — | 39% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.51–4.34 1.12–4.73 | — | 2.84 1.28–4.39 0.85–4.82 | — | 5.77 2.80–8.73 1.98–9.55 | — | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+