FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
42%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.202.60safe0.44–2.360.34–2.060.77–4.42safer0.18–2.620.09–2.300.27–4.92actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.619.47safe3.00–6.722.90–6.325.91–13.03safer2.51–7.222.44–6.794.94–14.00
Total shots
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5510.3121.87safe7.85–15.266.94–13.6914.79–28.95safer6.82–16.296.00–14.6212.82–30.91
Shots in box
54%
22%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.283.29safe0.00–4.530.00–3.580.00–8.11safer0.00–5.390.00–4.380.00–9.77
Blocked shots
26%
52%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction0.430.380.80safe0.00–2.010.00–1.790.00–3.80safer0.00–2.550.00–2.280.00–4.82
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.024.509.53safe2.82–7.232.52–6.485.34–13.71safer2.22–7.821.99–7.024.21–14.84
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.3447.98safe45.02–57.6641.66–54.30safer43.43–59.2540.07–55.90
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction420389809safe355–485324–453679–939safer337–503307–471644–974
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction71.4768.83safe67.25–75.6864.32–73.34safer65.95–76.9862.99–74.67
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4411.9722.40safe7.58–13.299.02–14.9116.60–28.21safer6.69–14.188.10–15.8314.80–30.01
Offsides
30%
30%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction0.961.162.12safe0.00–2.170.00–2.320.00–4.49safer0.00–2.510.00–2.650.00–5.16
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.903.41safe0.45–2.560.78–3.021.23–5.58safer0.18–2.830.49–3.310.67–6.14
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
55%
19%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.451.674.12safe1.04–3.860.11–3.221.15–7.09safer0.65–4.250.00–3.650.33–7.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.44–2.36 0.18–2.62 | 2.00 | 1.20 0.34–2.06 0.09–2.30 | 2.00 | 2.60 0.77–4.42 0.27–4.92 | 4.00 | 42% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.86 3.00–6.72 2.51–7.22 | — | 4.61 2.90–6.32 2.44–6.79 | — | 9.47 5.91–13.03 4.94–14.00 | — | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 11.55 7.85–15.26 6.82–16.29 | — | 10.31 6.94–13.69 6.00–14.62 | — | 21.87 14.79–28.95 12.82–30.91 | — | 56% 35% |
| Shots in box | 2.01 0.00–4.53 0.00–5.39 | — | 1.28 0.00–3.58 0.00–4.38 | — | 3.29 0.00–8.11 0.00–9.77 | — | 54% 22% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 0.43 0.00–2.01 0.00–2.55 | — | 0.38 0.00–1.79 0.00–2.28 | — | 0.80 0.00–3.80 0.00–4.82 | — | 26% 52% 22% |
| Corners | 5.02 2.82–7.23 2.22–7.82 | — | 4.50 2.52–6.48 1.99–7.02 | — | 9.53 5.34–13.71 4.21–14.84 | — | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 51.34 45.02–57.66 43.43–59.25 | — | 47.98 41.66–54.30 40.07–55.90 | — | — | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 420 355–485 337–503 | — | 389 324–453 307–471 | — | 809 679–939 644–974 | — | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.47 67.25–75.68 65.95–76.98 | — | 68.83 64.32–73.34 62.99–74.67 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 10.44 7.58–13.29 6.69–14.18 | — | 11.97 9.02–14.91 8.10–15.83 | — | 22.40 16.60–28.21 14.80–30.01 | — | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 0.96 0.00–2.17 0.00–2.51 | — | 1.16 0.00–2.32 0.00–2.65 | — | 2.12 0.00–4.49 0.00–5.16 | — | 30% 30% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.45–2.56 0.18–2.83 | — | 1.90 0.78–3.02 0.49–3.31 | — | 3.41 1.23–5.58 0.67–6.14 | — | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.04–3.86 0.65–4.25 | — | 1.67 0.11–3.22 0.00–3.65 | — | 4.12 1.15–7.09 0.33–7.91 | — | 55% 19% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.