FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.222.81safe0.63–2.550.36–2.080.99–4.63safer0.37–2.820.11–2.330.48–5.14actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.983.748.73safe3.13–6.842.04–5.455.16–12.29safer2.63–7.341.57–5.924.20–13.26
Total shots
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction11.878.7020.57safe8.17–15.575.33–12.0813.49–27.66safer7.13–16.604.40–13.0111.53–29.62
Shots in box
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.242.98safe0.00–4.260.00–3.540.00–7.80safer0.00–5.120.00–4.340.00–9.46
Blocked shots
26%
56%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction0.400.300.71safe0.00–1.990.00–1.720.00–3.70safer0.00–2.520.00–2.200.00–4.73
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.494.169.64safe3.28–7.692.18–6.145.46–13.83safer2.68–8.291.64–6.674.33–14.96
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction52.2146.09safe45.89–58.5339.77–52.41safer44.29–60.1238.17–54.00
Passes
72%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction431361792safe365–496297–426662–922safer348–513279–443627–957
Pass accuracy %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction70.6266.75safe66.41–74.8462.25–71.26safer65.11–76.1460.92–72.59
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2713.4226.69safe10.41–16.1310.48–16.3720.89–32.49safer9.53–17.019.56–17.2819.09–34.30
Offsides
45%
30%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.170.801.97safe0.00–2.380.00–1.960.00–4.35safer0.00–2.730.00–2.290.00–5.02
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.953.59safe0.59–2.700.83–3.071.42–5.77safer0.32–2.970.54–3.360.85–6.33
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.482.293.77safe0.07–2.890.74–3.850.81–6.74safer0.00–3.280.31–4.280.00–7.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.63–2.55 0.37–2.82 | 1.00 | 1.22 0.36–2.08 0.11–2.33 | 2.00 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.48–5.14 | 3.00 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.98 3.13–6.84 2.63–7.34 | — | 3.74 2.04–5.45 1.57–5.92 | — | 8.73 5.16–12.29 4.20–13.26 | — | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 11.87 8.17–15.57 7.13–16.60 | — | 8.70 5.33–12.08 4.40–13.01 | — | 20.57 13.49–27.66 11.53–29.62 | — | 72% 21% |
| Shots in box | 1.74 0.00–4.26 0.00–5.12 | — | 1.24 0.00–3.54 0.00–4.34 | — | 2.98 0.00–7.80 0.00–9.46 | — | 49% 24% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 0.40 0.00–1.99 0.00–2.52 | — | 0.30 0.00–1.72 0.00–2.20 | — | 0.71 0.00–3.70 0.00–4.73 | — | 26% 56% 18% |
| Corners | 5.49 3.28–7.69 2.68–8.29 | — | 4.16 2.18–6.14 1.64–6.67 | — | 9.64 5.46–13.83 4.33–14.96 | — | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 52.21 45.89–58.53 44.29–60.12 | — | 46.09 39.77–52.41 38.17–54.00 | — | — | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 431 365–496 348–513 | — | 361 297–426 279–443 | — | 792 662–922 627–957 | — | 72% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.62 66.41–74.84 65.11–76.14 | — | 66.75 62.25–71.26 60.92–72.59 | — | — | — | 66% 29% |
| Fouls | 13.27 10.41–16.13 9.53–17.01 | — | 13.42 10.48–16.37 9.56–17.28 | — | 26.69 20.89–32.49 19.09–34.30 | — | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.17 0.00–2.38 0.00–2.73 | — | 0.80 0.00–1.96 0.00–2.29 | — | 1.97 0.00–4.35 0.00–5.02 | — | 45% 30% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.59–2.70 0.32–2.97 | — | 1.95 0.83–3.07 0.54–3.36 | — | 3.59 1.42–5.77 0.85–6.33 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.48 0.07–2.89 0.00–3.28 | — | 2.29 0.74–3.85 0.31–4.28 | — | 3.77 0.81–6.74 0.00–7.56 | — | 24% 20% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.