FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.923.43safe0.55–2.471.06–2.781.60–5.25safer0.29–2.730.81–3.021.10–5.76actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
33%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction5.206.1811.38safe3.34–7.054.48–7.897.82–14.94safer2.84–7.554.01–8.366.85–15.91
Total shots
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8814.1327.02safe9.18–16.5810.76–17.5119.93–34.10safer8.15–17.629.83–18.4417.97–36.06
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction7.807.9815.78safe5.29–10.325.68–10.2810.96–20.60safer4.42–11.184.88–11.089.30–22.26
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.203.326.53safe1.62–4.791.91–4.743.53–9.52safer1.09–5.321.42–5.222.51–10.54
Corners
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.515.509.01safe1.31–5.723.52–7.484.83–13.19safer0.71–6.312.98–8.013.69–14.33
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction48.4052.93safe42.08–54.7246.61–59.25safer40.49–56.3145.01–60.84
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction411383794safe346–476318–447664–924safer328–494300–465629–959
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction72.0870.70safe67.86–76.2966.20–75.21safer66.56–77.5964.86–76.54
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6512.1024.75safe9.80–15.519.15–15.0518.95–30.55safer8.91–16.398.24–15.9617.15–32.36
Offsides
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.294.27safe0.76–3.181.13–3.461.90–6.64safer0.42–3.530.80–3.791.22–7.32
Yellow cards
41%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.623.34safe0.67–2.780.49–2.741.16–5.51safer0.40–3.050.20–3.030.60–6.08
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.253.076.32safe1.84–4.671.52–4.623.36–9.29safer1.45–5.061.08–5.062.54–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.55–2.47 0.29–2.73 | 1.00 | 1.92 1.06–2.78 0.81–3.02 | 1.00 | 3.43 1.60–5.25 1.10–5.76 | 2.00 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Shots on target | 5.20 3.34–7.05 2.84–7.55 | — | 6.18 4.48–7.89 4.01–8.36 | — | 11.38 7.82–14.94 6.85–15.91 | — | 33% 56% |
| Total shots | 12.88 9.18–16.58 8.15–17.62 | — | 14.13 10.76–17.51 9.83–18.44 | — | 27.02 19.93–34.10 17.97–36.06 | — | 37% 56% |
| Shots in box | 7.80 5.29–10.32 4.42–11.18 | — | 7.98 5.68–10.28 4.88–11.08 | — | 15.78 10.96–20.60 9.30–22.26 | — | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 1.62–4.79 1.09–5.32 | — | 3.32 1.91–4.74 1.42–5.22 | — | 6.53 3.53–9.52 2.51–10.54 | — | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 3.51 1.31–5.72 0.71–6.31 | — | 5.50 3.52–7.48 2.98–8.01 | — | 9.01 4.83–13.19 3.69–14.33 | — | 20% 69% |
| Possession % | 48.40 42.08–54.72 40.49–56.31 | — | 52.93 46.61–59.25 45.01–60.84 | — | — | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 411 346–476 328–494 | — | 383 318–447 300–465 | — | 794 664–924 629–959 | — | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.08 67.86–76.29 66.56–77.59 | — | 70.70 66.20–75.21 64.86–76.54 | — | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 12.65 9.80–15.51 8.91–16.39 | — | 12.10 9.15–15.05 8.24–15.96 | — | 24.75 18.95–30.55 17.15–32.36 | — | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.76–3.18 0.42–3.53 | — | 2.29 1.13–3.46 0.80–3.79 | — | 4.27 1.90–6.64 1.22–7.32 | — | 34% 20% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.78 0.40–3.05 | — | 1.62 0.49–2.74 0.20–3.03 | — | 3.34 1.16–5.51 0.60–6.08 | — | 41% 23% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.25 1.84–4.67 1.45–5.06 | — | 3.07 1.52–4.62 1.08–5.06 | — | 6.32 3.36–9.29 2.54–10.11 | — | 45% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.