FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
56%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.072.92safe0.89–2.820.21–1.931.10–4.74safer0.63–3.080.00–2.170.59–5.25actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.163.048.20safe3.30–7.011.33–4.754.63–11.76safer2.80–7.510.87–5.223.67–12.73
Total shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction12.657.9420.60safe8.95–16.364.57–11.3213.52–27.68safer7.92–17.393.64–12.2511.55–29.64
Shots in box
62%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction7.535.9113.44safe5.01–10.053.61–8.218.62–18.25safer4.15–10.912.81–9.006.96–19.92
Blocked shots
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.252.495.74safe1.67–4.831.08–3.912.74–8.74safer1.13–5.370.59–4.391.72–9.76
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.223.238.45safe3.02–7.431.26–5.214.27–12.64safer2.42–8.020.72–5.753.14–13.77
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.0345.68safe47.71–60.3539.36–52.00safer46.12–61.9437.76–53.60
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction389362751safe323–454298–427621–881safer306–472280–444586–916
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction70.6368.03safe66.42–74.8563.52–72.54safer65.11–76.1562.19–73.87
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4112.2823.69safe8.55–14.279.33–15.2217.88–29.49safer7.67–15.158.41–16.1416.08–31.29
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.211.643.85safe1.00–3.420.48–2.801.48–6.23safer0.66–3.770.15–3.140.80–6.90
Yellow cards
38%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.743.43safe0.64–2.750.62–2.861.26–5.61safer0.37–3.030.33–3.150.70–6.17
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.040.11safe0.00–0.220.00–0.240.00–0.46safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
24%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.063.155.21safe0.65–3.481.59–4.702.24–8.18safer0.26–3.861.16–5.131.42–9.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.86 0.89–2.82 0.63–3.08 | 3.00 | 1.07 0.21–1.93 0.00–2.17 | 0.00 | 2.92 1.10–4.74 0.59–5.25 | 3.00 | 56% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.16 3.30–7.01 2.80–7.51 | — | 3.04 1.33–4.75 0.87–5.22 | — | 8.20 4.63–11.76 3.67–12.73 | — | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 12.65 8.95–16.36 7.92–17.39 | — | 7.94 4.57–11.32 3.64–12.25 | — | 20.60 13.52–27.68 11.55–29.64 | — | 82% |
| Shots in box | 7.53 5.01–10.05 4.15–10.91 | — | 5.91 3.61–8.21 2.81–9.00 | — | 13.44 8.62–18.25 6.96–19.92 | — | 62% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.67–4.83 1.13–5.37 | — | 2.49 1.08–3.91 0.59–4.39 | — | 5.74 2.74–8.74 1.72–9.76 | — | 54% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 5.22 3.02–7.43 2.42–8.02 | — | 3.23 1.26–5.21 0.72–5.75 | — | 8.45 4.27–12.64 3.14–13.77 | — | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 54.03 47.71–60.35 46.12–61.94 | — | 45.68 39.36–52.00 37.76–53.60 | — | — | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 389 323–454 306–472 | — | 362 298–427 280–444 | — | 751 621–881 586–916 | — | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.63 66.42–74.85 65.11–76.15 | — | 68.03 63.52–72.54 62.19–73.87 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 11.41 8.55–14.27 7.67–15.15 | — | 12.28 9.33–15.22 8.41–16.14 | — | 23.69 17.88–29.49 16.08–31.29 | — | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.21 1.00–3.42 0.66–3.77 | — | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.15–3.14 | — | 3.85 1.48–6.23 0.80–6.90 | — | 51% 20% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.64–2.75 0.37–3.03 | — | 1.74 0.62–2.86 0.33–3.15 | — | 3.43 1.26–5.61 0.70–6.17 | — | 38% 23% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.06 0.65–3.48 0.26–3.86 | — | 3.15 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.13 | — | 5.21 2.24–8.18 1.42–9.00 | — | 24% 16% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.