FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
60%
22%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.940.972.91safe0.98–2.900.11–1.831.08–4.73safer0.71–3.160.00–2.070.58–5.23actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.494.159.64safe3.64–7.352.44–5.866.08–13.21safer3.14–7.851.97–6.335.11–14.18
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction16.7910.3727.16safe13.09–20.506.99–13.7520.08–34.24safer12.06–21.536.06–14.6818.12–36.21
Shots in box
14%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction2.284.566.84safe0.00–4.802.26–6.862.02–11.66safer0.00–5.661.46–7.660.36–13.32
Blocked shots
20%
19%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.272.333.60safe0.00–2.860.92–3.740.61–6.60safer0.00–3.390.43–4.230.00–7.62
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.093.299.38safe3.88–8.291.31–5.275.20–13.56safer3.29–8.890.78–5.814.06–14.70
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction54.1744.86safe47.85–60.4938.54–51.18safer46.26–62.0936.95–52.78
Passes
69%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction439379818safe373–504314–443688–948safer356–522297–461653–983
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction69.7167.65safe65.50–73.9363.14–72.16safer64.20–75.2361.81–73.49
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5512.2823.82safe8.69–14.419.33–15.2218.02–29.63safer7.81–15.298.41–16.1416.22–31.43
Offsides
29%
24%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.723.03safe0.10–2.520.56–2.890.66–5.41safer0.00–2.860.23–3.220.00–6.08
Yellow cards
29%
23%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.813.16safe0.29–2.400.69–2.930.98–5.34safer0.02–2.670.40–3.220.42–5.90
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.050.14safe0.00–0.240.00–0.240.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
38%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.652.835.48safe1.24–4.071.27–4.382.51–8.45safer0.85–4.460.84–4.811.69–9.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.94 0.98–2.90 0.71–3.16 | 1.00 | 0.97 0.11–1.83 0.00–2.07 | 1.00 | 2.91 1.08–4.73 0.58–5.23 | 2.00 | 60% 22% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.49 3.64–7.35 3.14–7.85 | — | 4.15 2.44–5.86 1.97–6.33 | — | 9.64 6.08–13.21 5.11–14.18 | — | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 16.79 13.09–20.50 12.06–21.53 | — | 10.37 6.99–13.75 6.06–14.68 | — | 27.16 20.08–34.24 18.12–36.21 | — | 87% |
| Shots in box | 2.28 0.00–4.80 0.00–5.66 | — | 4.56 2.26–6.86 1.46–7.66 | — | 6.84 2.02–11.66 0.36–13.32 | — | 14% 75% |
| Blocked shots | 1.27 0.00–2.86 0.00–3.39 | — | 2.33 0.92–3.74 0.43–4.23 | — | 3.60 0.61–6.60 0.00–7.62 | — | 20% 19% 61% |
| Corners | 6.09 3.88–8.29 3.29–8.89 | — | 3.29 1.31–5.27 0.78–5.81 | — | 9.38 5.20–13.56 4.06–14.70 | — | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 54.17 47.85–60.49 46.26–62.09 | — | 44.86 38.54–51.18 36.95–52.78 | — | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 439 373–504 356–522 | — | 379 314–443 297–461 | — | 818 688–948 653–983 | — | 69% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.71 65.50–73.93 64.20–75.23 | — | 67.65 63.14–72.16 61.81–73.49 | — | — | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 11.55 8.69–14.41 7.81–15.29 | — | 12.28 9.33–15.22 8.41–16.14 | — | 23.82 18.02–29.63 16.22–31.43 | — | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.10–2.52 0.00–2.86 | — | 1.72 0.56–2.89 0.23–3.22 | — | 3.03 0.66–5.41 0.00–6.08 | — | 29% 24% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 0.29–2.40 0.02–2.67 | — | 1.81 0.69–2.93 0.40–3.22 | — | 3.16 0.98–5.34 0.42–5.90 | — | 29% 23% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.24–4.07 0.85–4.46 | — | 2.83 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.81 | — | 5.48 2.51–8.45 1.69–9.27 | — | 38% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.