FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
36%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.222.43safe0.25–2.180.36–2.080.61–4.25safer0.00–2.440.11–2.320.10–4.76actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.174.168.33safe2.31–6.032.45–5.874.77–11.89safer1.81–6.521.98–6.343.80–12.86
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5710.2120.79safe6.87–14.286.84–13.5913.70–27.87safer5.84–15.315.91–14.5211.74–29.83
Shots in box
68%
14%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction3.581.955.53safe1.06–6.090.00–4.250.71–10.34safer0.20–6.960.00–5.050.00–12.00
Blocked shots
55%
25%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.590.832.42safe0.00–3.170.00–2.250.00–5.42safer0.00–3.700.00–2.740.00–6.44
Corners
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.624.108.72safe2.41–6.822.12–6.084.54–12.90safer1.82–7.421.59–6.623.40–14.04
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction48.8250.09safe42.51–55.1443.77–56.41safer40.91–56.7442.18–58.01
Passes
33%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction362413775safe297–428348–477645–905safer279–445331–495610–940
Pass accuracy %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction68.8870.72safe64.67–73.1066.21–75.23safer63.37–74.4064.88–76.56
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4113.7427.15safe10.55–16.2710.80–16.6921.35–32.95safer9.67–17.159.88–17.6019.55–34.76
Offsides
49%
22%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.403.30safe0.69–3.110.24–2.560.93–5.67safer0.35–3.450.00–2.900.25–6.35
Yellow cards
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.683.51safe0.78–2.890.56–2.801.34–5.69safer0.51–3.160.27–3.090.77–6.25
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.060.18safe0.00–0.270.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.420.00–0.400.00–0.82
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.602.535.12safe1.18–4.010.97–4.082.16–8.09safer0.80–4.400.54–4.511.34–8.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 2.00 | 1.22 0.36–2.08 0.11–2.32 | 0.00 | 2.43 0.61–4.25 0.10–4.76 | 2.00 | 36% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.31–6.03 1.81–6.52 | — | 4.16 2.45–5.87 1.98–6.34 | — | 8.33 4.77–11.89 3.80–12.86 | — | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 10.57 6.87–14.28 5.84–15.31 | — | 10.21 6.84–13.59 5.91–14.52 | — | 20.79 13.70–27.87 11.74–29.83 | — | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 3.58 1.06–6.09 0.20–6.96 | — | 1.95 0.00–4.25 0.00–5.05 | — | 5.53 0.71–10.34 0.00–12.00 | — | 68% 14% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 1.59 0.00–3.17 0.00–3.70 | — | 0.83 0.00–2.25 0.00–2.74 | — | 2.42 0.00–5.42 0.00–6.44 | — | 55% 25% 20% |
| Corners | 4.62 2.41–6.82 1.82–7.42 | — | 4.10 2.12–6.08 1.59–6.62 | — | 8.72 4.54–12.90 3.40–14.04 | — | 50% 14% 36% |
| Possession % | 48.82 42.51–55.14 40.91–56.74 | — | 50.09 43.77–56.41 42.18–58.01 | — | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 362 297–428 279–445 | — | 413 348–477 331–495 | — | 775 645–905 610–940 | — | 33% 67% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.88 64.67–73.10 63.37–74.40 | — | 70.72 66.21–75.23 64.88–76.56 | — | — | — | 39% 57% |
| Fouls | 13.41 10.55–16.27 9.67–17.15 | — | 13.74 10.80–16.69 9.88–17.60 | — | 27.15 21.35–32.95 19.55–34.76 | — | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.69–3.11 0.35–3.45 | — | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.90 | — | 3.30 0.93–5.67 0.25–6.35 | — | 49% 22% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.16 | — | 1.68 0.56–2.80 0.27–3.09 | — | 3.51 1.34–5.69 0.77–6.25 | — | 42% 22% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.18–4.01 0.80–4.40 | — | 2.53 0.97–4.08 0.54–4.51 | — | 5.12 2.16–8.09 1.34–8.91 | — | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.