FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.192.89safe0.74–2.660.33–2.051.07–4.71safer0.48–2.920.08–2.300.56–5.22actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
39%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.965.3410.30safe3.11–6.823.63–7.056.74–13.87safer2.61–7.323.17–7.525.77–14.83
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8412.6525.49safe9.13–16.549.27–16.0318.40–32.57safer8.10–17.578.34–16.9616.44–34.53
Shots in box
18%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction4.847.5812.42safe2.33–7.365.27–9.887.60–17.24safer1.46–8.224.48–10.675.94–18.90
Blocked shots
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.513.275.78safe0.92–4.091.86–4.682.78–8.77safer0.39–4.621.37–5.171.76–9.79
Corners
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.064.058.11safe1.86–6.272.07–6.023.92–12.29safer1.26–6.861.53–6.562.79–13.42
Possession %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction48.7550.59safe42.43–55.0744.27–56.91safer40.83–56.6642.68–58.51
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction404387791safe339–470322–452662–921safer321–487305–469626–957
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction64.9067.94safe60.68–69.1163.44–72.45safer59.38–70.4162.11–73.78
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9712.7324.71safe9.12–14.839.79–15.6818.91–30.51safer8.23–15.728.87–16.6017.10–32.31
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.673.42safe0.54–2.960.51–2.831.04–5.79safer0.19–3.300.18–3.170.37–6.47
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.863.46safe0.55–2.660.73–2.981.29–5.64safer0.28–2.940.44–3.270.72–6.20
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.040.11safe0.00–0.220.00–0.240.00–0.46safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
38%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.672.855.53safe1.26–4.091.30–4.412.56–8.50safer0.87–4.480.87–4.841.74–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.74–2.66 0.48–2.92 | 2.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.08–2.30 | 2.00 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.56–5.22 | 4.00 | 49% 24% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.96 3.11–6.82 2.61–7.32 | — | 5.34 3.63–7.05 3.17–7.52 | — | 10.30 6.74–13.87 5.77–14.83 | — | 39% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.84 9.13–16.54 8.10–17.57 | — | 12.65 9.27–16.03 8.34–16.96 | — | 25.49 18.40–32.57 16.44–34.53 | — | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 4.84 2.33–7.36 1.46–8.22 | — | 7.58 5.27–9.88 4.48–10.67 | — | 12.42 7.60–17.24 5.94–18.90 | — | 18% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 2.51 0.92–4.09 0.39–4.62 | — | 3.27 1.86–4.68 1.37–5.17 | — | 5.78 2.78–8.77 1.76–9.79 | — | 30% 16% 54% |
| Corners | 4.06 1.86–6.27 1.26–6.86 | — | 4.05 2.07–6.02 1.53–6.56 | — | 8.11 3.92–12.29 2.79–13.42 | — | 43% 14% 43% |
| Possession % | 48.75 42.43–55.07 40.83–56.66 | — | 50.59 44.27–56.91 42.68–58.51 | — | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Passes | 404 339–470 321–487 | — | 387 322–452 305–469 | — | 791 662–921 626–957 | — | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.90 60.68–69.11 59.38–70.41 | — | 67.94 63.44–72.45 62.11–73.78 | — | — | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 11.97 9.12–14.83 8.23–15.72 | — | 12.73 9.79–15.68 8.87–16.60 | — | 24.71 18.91–30.51 17.10–32.31 | — | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.54–2.96 0.19–3.30 | — | 1.67 0.51–2.83 0.18–3.17 | — | 3.42 1.04–5.79 0.37–6.47 | — | 40% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.55–2.66 0.28–2.94 | — | 1.86 0.73–2.98 0.44–3.27 | — | 3.46 1.29–5.64 0.72–6.20 | — | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.26–4.09 0.87–4.48 | — | 2.85 1.30–4.41 0.87–4.84 | — | 5.53 2.56–8.50 1.74–9.32 | — | 38% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.